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Value Plays Update (10/25/2023)

New Metrics: Win % and Implied Odds

Let's grab a recent race to use an example. Here's part of the field from Horseshoe Indianapolis, Race 3 from Monday (10/23/23).
Initially, Value Plays suggests using the #1 about 17% of the time with 9/5 odds and using the #7 about 17% of the time relative to 4/1 odds. With Implied Odds of 9/2, we find that neither would offer an overlay in the win pool if the tote held true to the sheet.

Of course though, parimutel markets are self-correcting and off odds can differ a good amount from opening lines. Additionally, scratches can change the complexion of a race and each runner's respective win chances as well. With Predicteform's Race Analyzer Tool, we can scratch horses and update odds to re-calculate the Value Plays Win %. This is useful whether you're capping close to post using live odds or capping ahead of time and want to correct what you perceive as a bad ML to your own projected odds.

In our example race, after scratching the #11 and assigning closing odds to all runners, we see the pair of #1 and #7 further distance themselves from this field with the share of Win %. Using the Implied Odds of 4/1 on each, one could easily conclude #7 Monumentaljustice would make the better value bet since his Odds of 9/2 are an overlay to the Implied Odds of 4/1 while the #1 Sargent Hulka is a big underlay with Implied Odds of 4/1 while only offering even money at 1/1. We also see with the recalculation a longshot jump up into the picture for our superfecta considerations.
*Note: Win % and Implied Odds are not calculated for races containing runners with no data.*

Results | Horseshoe Indianapolis | Race 3 | 10-23-2023

# Horse Jockey Win Place Show
7 Monumentaljustice Fernando De La Cruz 11.40 4.60 3.80
1 Sargent Hulka Alberto Burgos 2.60 2.40
9 Paige Perfect Rodney Prescott 3.60
3 Charming Victory Joseph Ramos
Bet Type Runners Pay Out
$2 Exacta 7-1 $26.40
$1 Trifecta 7-1-9 $59.00
$1 Superfecta 7-1-9-3 $839.60

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