Value Plays Update (10/25/2023)

New Metrics: Win % and Implied Odds

Let's grab a recent race to use an example. Here's part of the field from Horseshoe Indianapolis, Race 3 from Monday (10/23/23).
Initially, Value Plays suggests using the #1 about 17% of the time with 9/5 odds and using the #7 about 17% of the time relative to 4/1 odds. With Implied Odds of 9/2, we find that neither would offer an overlay in the win pool if the tote held true to the sheet.

Of course though, parimutel markets are self-correcting and off odds can differ a good amount from opening lines. Additionally, scratches can change the complexion of a race and each runner's respective win chances as well. With Predicteform's Race Analyzer Tool, we can scratch horses and update odds to re-calculate the Value Plays Win %. This is useful whether you're capping close to post using live odds or capping ahead of time and want to correct what you perceive as a bad ML to your own projected odds.

In our example race, after scratching the #11 and assigning closing odds to all runners, we see the pair of #1 and #7 further distance themselves from this field with the share of Win %. Using the Implied Odds of 4/1 on each, one could easily conclude #7 Monumentaljustice would make the better value bet since his Odds of 9/2 are an overlay to the Implied Odds of 4/1 while the #1 Sargent Hulka is a big underlay with Implied Odds of 4/1 while only offering even money at 1/1. We also see with the recalculation a longshot jump up into the picture for our superfecta considerations.
*Note: Win % and Implied Odds are not calculated for races containing runners with no data.*

Results | Horseshoe Indianapolis | Race 3 | 10-23-2023

# Horse Jockey Win Place Show
7 Monumentaljustice Fernando De La Cruz 11.40 4.60 3.80
1 Sargent Hulka Alberto Burgos 2.60 2.40
9 Paige Perfect Rodney Prescott 3.60
3 Charming Victory Joseph Ramos
Bet Type Runners Pay Out
$2 Exacta 7-1 $26.40
$1 Trifecta 7-1-9 $59.00
$1 Superfecta 7-1-9-3 $839.60



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Welcome to Predicteform Pace Figures, Form Cycle Patterns and Value Play picks will tell you if a horse is likely to improve or regress in its next start. Easily accessible from any computer, tablet or mobile device, services horse players of all types. Access to printing PDF's is also available.

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