The sequence we've been given here features 4 of the 6 spins taking place between maiden claimers. I have 3 general rules I like to start with when selecting maiden claiming contenders.
1. Compression Line
With lightly-raced runners, a foundation of even energy distribution often leads to future success as outlined in Cary's discussion of the COMP and COMP* Form Cycle Patterns. A runner sporting the COMP tag facing all NEG runners is a must include. When there are no COMP runners, I still like to look for the most compressed dirt spread (4F minus Final) in the race as that runner exhibits the necessary foundation to move forward more so than other more forwardly-spent rivals.
2. Fastest 2F Figure
When looking at maiden claiming races, we can assume a portion of the field may never win a race in their career. We can also assume another portion of the field isn't ready to pass or engage rivals yet. This often leaves us with maiden claiming winners quite simply being the runner to break on top. We all know speed kills in dirt racing and given our first couple statements, this means the pacesetter is really only up against a few threats: The compressed runner, the debut runner who fits, and their own ability to sustain lone speed.
3. Lone Debut
I've often found it a mistake to toss any first time starter who stands alone in a field as the only runner without a resume. When this situation arises, you've got value using the runner with an unknown fit versus a field who have already failed at the level. I'll back off this rule if there are rivals taking the “ultimate drop” as the previous statement wouldn't apply to those. This angle will only come into play today if there are scratches.
Race 5 | Dirt | 6 Furlongs
#1 Start Them Up
77/66h in last gives this runner a Final Figure right with today's M/L favorite and it's a positive sign from a herd dynamics standpoint to see him pass rivals through each call in last.
#3 Mentirosa
Every runner here is looking to break through a DTOP so what better way to move forward and break through than to feature the most compressed last running line of the field? 72/66 (4F/Final) gives us a +6 dirt spread with the other DTOP runners ranging from +7 to +11.
#4 Reign Of Speed
The only runner to top an 80+ 2F Figure twice in career, he also features the best Final Figure of the field of the DMR tries. The 75h/66 from last at LRC rates right there with other contenders.
#5 Stay In The Game
Fastest Last 2F Figure of field and taking the ultimate class drop today. 6/1 would be an excellent offering on this type of runner.
#9 Victim Of The Nite
Has excellent wet track pedigree and could trigger Rule #3 of maiden claimers if there's scratches here. It rained this morning.
Race 6 | Turf | 6 Furlongs
#6 Conch Daddy
A bit forward on turf but those featured good Finals compared to this field as he was trying to go with maiden allowance company there. Off a DTOP/NPT conditioning combo here making for a great spot to make the surface switch back against easier.
#11 An Army Of Light
78h/74 debut fits well here and expect improvement off the dirt try. The triggered PLUN pattern indicates the dirt try was a conditioner rather than honest effort.
#13 Honeymoon Suite
Tightening turf spreads between the two spins are going the right way for developing good fundamental turf dynamics.
#14 Law Abiding
If drawing in, the 76/74 is right there with the best and actually a little more compressed than others which is a good attribute to possess from the outside.
Race 7 | Dirt | 8 Furlongs
#1 Shez Our Arch
Triggered a REV in last when going sprint to route which while not particularly surprising, it does give off positive vibes given this one owns the Top Last Final Figure.
#7 Kitten Calls
Threw up a dud after an NPT/COMP combo. This situation always makes for an excellent bet-back spot. The NPT is a strong conditioning move and when a runner isn't able to handle it next out, they often return much improved 2nd off that NPT.
Race 8 | Turf | 8 Furlongs
#3 Feathers
In a field with lots of speed, the +7 turf spread (Final minus 4F) stands out as a big advantage here as the runner that could be accelerating much the best in stretch.
#5 Gallovie
Got way too forward in last when going with a field that prompted an 85+ 4F Pace. Can settle back down now to a more formful contest and meet the “Bests System” with the 76.6 Final Figure two back.
Race 9 | Dirt | 6 Furlongs
Not the ideal race for our purpose here. There's no obvious compression, a question mark as to the likely pacesetter, and half the contenders are on debut. It's a race I'll be looking at likely all the way up to betting time while consulting supplementary handicapping resources.
#3 Modera
Rule #2 points to this one off the 77.6 2F Figure, but it fails to truly hold up much as meaningful in this particular spot. The M/L favorite hasn't been on dirt yet and there's three debut runners to deal with.
Race 10 | Turf | 8 Furlongs
#1 In Your Face
Has the task of stepping up to face winners but could be up for the challenge with the sudden improvement in last to 68/76h sporting a competitive Final Figure to this field but with a bigger turf spread than the others. If holding form, projects to have slightly better stretch acceleration than others.
#2 Ropers N Wranglers
Projects to be forwardly placed here with the inside jump on other rivals who can match that 77.6 Final Figure which looks to be about what it will take to win here.
#4 Rvalentina
Interesting one being one of the lightest raced runners here and triggered a PLOW 2nd time on turf which is a nice indicator of future turf success. Have seen some Lone Star runners ship around this year and do well. The 75h/71 local debut was forward non-competitive for this field but we'll see if the claim turns things around after posting a good-looking work tab.
#13 Myfavoritedaughter
If drawing in, offers nice value for a runner with some back form owning back-to-back running lines competitive in this field while also sporting a REV, a nice indication of good energy distribution that translates well back over to turf.