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Keeneland Saturday Late Pick 4 (10/29/22)

Race 7 | Dirt | 6.5 Furlongs

#3 Shipman 10/1

Enters on a combo of NPT Form Cycle Patterns most recently at 76h/73h (4F/Final). The Value Plays' Menu has listed this one as Top Contender. In dirt sprints at Keeneland, Top Contenders with an NPT are 22.2% winners for +62.0% ROI over the last year.

#5 Plausible Denile 10/1

Also off an NPT, this one has been very forward spent prompting an 86/69 in last. With a Last 4F sort, you'll find this one almost 9 points faster than the closest rival. There's a lot of room for this one to improve if settling better up front here.

#12 Iceatude 9/2

Put up a competitive running line on debut at 72h/72 while triggering the COMP Form Cycle Pattern, a good indicator of impending improvement for this next start.

Race 8 | Turf | 8 Furlongs

#5 Classic Causeway 4/1

Grade I winner gets easier here off a nice 69/80 running line at this trip. 4F/6F Figures put this one near the lead with a chance to have first look at the turn and is 1 of only 3 to ever top an 80+ Final Figure.

#8 Wit 3/1

Looks to move off the PLOW Form Cycle Pattern with a preceding 80+ Final Figure and consecutive double-digit turf spreads (Final minus 4F) and should be rolling late.

Race 9 | Dirt | 9 Furlongs

#1 West Will Power 4/1

Could be looking to steal from the rail here off a big bullet work. Nice NPT/DTOP conditioning preceding a SOFT win which indicates there's more to show here.

#4 First Captain 6/5

Will be a single for many players here after competitively chasing a couple big name runners in last. Holds a big late speed edge on this field with those 20-point dirt spreads.

#6 Last Samurai 6/1

NPT/DTOP combo preceding last is a nice conditioning pair of moves to help development here and a move forward off the break wouldn't surprise.

Race 10 | Turf | 5.5 Furlongs

#1 Illegal Smile (IRE) 8/5

Short price looks like the class of the race owning the Best Average Final Figure off 76, 81, and 77 this year. Today's rivals can get there now and then but they aren't stringing those numbers together like this one can.

#6 Spicy Marg 7/2

Lots of 80+ 4F Figures here as a runner that likes to try stealing. Not many in this field doing that as consistently as this one while also holding her competitive Final Figures.

#11 Sara Mia 15/1

Rates to have a bit of work to do late but with likely big odds looming, worth a look as a runner who posted a larger Final Figure than 4F Figure in last at 75h/77h in this spot. Cheap purchase is run back quick in 7 days here.

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