Predicteform Predicteform

Winning Colors Stakes (05/30/20)

Churchill Downs, Race 7

Older fillies and mares will sprint 6 furlongs on the dirt for a group short on recency making one of their first few starts for the year. Two heavy co-favorites have surfaced in the morning line battle. Let's use our Pace Figure Story to compare then see if we can find any interesting form developments in some longer prices.

#2 Break Even 9/5 vs #8 Mia Mischief 8/5

Break Even needed a race flopping the 4-year old debut to a 77/64 but quickly recovered to an 85/77 last out. An advantage of 2 points in 4F figure is the threshold where a runner should be considered for a possible lone speed play. If the field has other plans and won't allow Break Even the front so easily, Mia Mischief may be primed to be the deserving top contender here. Mia Mischief has the 4F figures to be prominently placed to go with the Final figures to win, but offers a more compressed dirt spread (4F minus Final). Break Even comes off a +8 spread with Mia Mischief a +5 last out indicating a bit more energy is distributed toward the end of her recent races while not sacrificing favorable position.

#1 Sneaking Out 12/1

Comes in for 2nd start off a 4-year old season debut of 75/75. Looked to be a productive 8 months off training with the 3-point bump in final from her best from a year ago. The compressed line off the long layoff falls in line with her career debut, moving forward nicely off a compression line (COMP) and we see the same pattern a possibility here. Compared to the field she'll face today, notice most of the rivals consistently set 4F pace figures higher here. While this runner points to very likely improve, there is a risk of needing to negotiate traffic late passing horses. Will need to demand value to back.

#5 Unique Factor 30/1

Seeing her first dirt sprint in some time, she double-topped (DTOP) to 82/73. Trying a route from there, we can use the 6F turnback number to pull “the race from within the race” giving us a 75/74 before ultimately popping an 80/77 last out. The most recent race didn't qualify as a DTOP, but it was certainly a significant move. A repeat 80/77 would certainly put Unique Factor in the conversation here at bomb odds. However, runner was just claimed so we'll need to weigh our thoughts on the new connections' ability to keep this runner progressing off a lifetime high final going against more established dirt sprinters.

Follow me on Twitter @predicteform

Comments

Search Blogs

Archive

Welcome to Predicteform

Predicteform.com Pace Figures, Form Cycle Patterns and Value Play picks will tell you if a horse is likely to improve or regress in its next start. Easily accessible from any computer, tablet or mobile device, Predicteform.com services horse players of all types. Access to printing PDF's is also available.

How do I get started?
Visit the Learn tab on the navigation bar where you'll find the Predicteform.com Legend and Pattern Guide. These two tools combined will give you the knowledge you need to use Predicteform.com:

The Legend helps to explain how best to read the Pace Figures. It clearly defines what every line, symbol and figure means.

The Pattern Guide highlights Form Cycle Patterns, a series of 12 symbols/abbreviations, each with its own definition. These patterns are the easiest and most effective way to evaluate what we can expect from a horse's future performance and expected form cycle.

Value Play Picks use the automated technology and process to evaluate every track and race as well as the Predicteform.com team's analytical expertise, we can now rank every horse by its likelihood of winning the race and value (initially relative to morning line odds).
Value Play picks are included as part of all subscriptions and you can view now on the Free Race of the Day.

Blinker's Off - We have also published founder Cary Fotias' unabridged book on Form Cycle Analysis, available by chapter free to all who register.

Free Race of the Day – Every day, we will make available the Pace Figures and Value Play Picks for at least one race. Pace Figures are what subscribers, both in the Value Play Picks and the comprehensive "advanced" view, can see for every horse of every race at every track. Check out today's free race here.

Free Track of the Weekend - Each weekend (Fri. - Sun.), Predicteform will offer access to the Value Play Picks, Pace Figures and Form Cycle Patterns. Access to this data will provide new users an ability to follow along and learn how read, analyze and use the Predicteform technology.

Where can I see sample races?
Click here to read examples of the Pace Figures and Form Cycle Pattern Analysis for the 2016 Preakness Stakes. Many more race examples and other content has been made available within the Blog section of the site.

Feedback is incredibly important to the Predicteform.com team as we attempt to keep the spirit of Equiform.com founder, Cary Fotias' handicapping vision alive while also providing you with the best possible product. We encourage you to register/log in and send us comments, thoughts and questions about the site through Customer Support.

Let us know what you like and what you want to see more of. We are big believers in collaboration and hope you are as excited as we are about Predicteform.com.