Winning Colors Stakes (05/30/20)

Churchill Downs, Race 7

Older fillies and mares will sprint 6 furlongs on the dirt for a group short on recency making one of their first few starts for the year. Two heavy co-favorites have surfaced in the morning line battle. Let's use our Pace Figure Story to compare then see if we can find any interesting form developments in some longer prices.

#2 Break Even 9/5 vs #8 Mia Mischief 8/5

Break Even needed a race flopping the 4-year old debut to a 77/64 but quickly recovered to an 85/77 last out. An advantage of 2 points in 4F figure is the threshold where a runner should be considered for a possible lone speed play. If the field has other plans and won't allow Break Even the front so easily, Mia Mischief may be primed to be the deserving top contender here. Mia Mischief has the 4F figures to be prominently placed to go with the Final figures to win, but offers a more compressed dirt spread (4F minus Final). Break Even comes off a +8 spread with Mia Mischief a +5 last out indicating a bit more energy is distributed toward the end of her recent races while not sacrificing favorable position.

#1 Sneaking Out 12/1

Comes in for 2nd start off a 4-year old season debut of 75/75. Looked to be a productive 8 months off training with the 3-point bump in final from her best from a year ago. The compressed line off the long layoff falls in line with her career debut, moving forward nicely off a compression line (COMP) and we see the same pattern a possibility here. Compared to the field she'll face today, notice most of the rivals consistently set 4F pace figures higher here. While this runner points to very likely improve, there is a risk of needing to negotiate traffic late passing horses. Will need to demand value to back.

#5 Unique Factor 30/1

Seeing her first dirt sprint in some time, she double-topped (DTOP) to 82/73. Trying a route from there, we can use the 6F turnback number to pull “the race from within the race” giving us a 75/74 before ultimately popping an 80/77 last out. The most recent race didn't qualify as a DTOP, but it was certainly a significant move. A repeat 80/77 would certainly put Unique Factor in the conversation here at bomb odds. However, runner was just claimed so we'll need to weigh our thoughts on the new connections' ability to keep this runner progressing off a lifetime high final going against more established dirt sprinters.

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