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G2 Stephen Foster S. (06/26/21)

Churchill Downs, Race 11

Dirt, 9 Furlongs

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#1 Chess Chief 12/1

Quickly increasing his 4F Figure along with his Final Figure, he's also maintained his dirt spread (4F minus Final) during that progression going -9, -9, -11. He looks to continue forward off a steady work pattern here but offers some risk of having a bit to do late even with a peak performance.

#3 Necker Island 15/1

Popped a 79/79 NPT last out, a positive Form Cycle Pattern most runners move forward off of. Going 3rd off the layoff here looks like a sweet spot for a runner moving forward quickly. As a runner that loves passing targets late yet owning the fastest Last 4F Figure, I'm not surprised the Value Plays algorithm pegged this one as the Top Value at this juicy morning line.

#8 Maxfield 4/5

Classier horses have a better shot to break through DTOPs as this one only has one defeat on the record. However, the jump to a 72/83 DTOP was a significant move with previous Final Figures ranging around 75.

#9 Visitant 6/1

Put up a 76/81 DTOP when switching from a mostly synthetic track campaign. When a significant change such as surface brings about improvement, we usually see that continue 2nd time out as well.

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