G2 Risen Star S. (02/13/21)

Fair Grounds, Race 13

9 Furlongs, Dirt

#2 Proxy 8/1

Bit of a horse for the course today with 2 wins and a second on this track to his name already. Dirt spread (4F minus Final) has progressed in those starts as -2 to -4.5 to -8 indicating even development in learning to shift energy more evenly and to the later stages of a race. The dam's foals own the longest “average winning distance” of this field so pedigree as well as dirt spreads indicate the stretchout to 9 furlongs is a positive.

#3 Beep Beep 20/1

The 77/74 COMP on debut was the best first out performance of the field. Ran into trouble second out routing to just a 61/66 but has a right to rebound with a better break here given the excellent debut to work back off of.

#6 Midnight Bourbon 6/1

Took a bit of a form reversal last out settling into a 66/73 after posting positive dirt spreads in 3 of the last 4. Runner seems to want to be prominently placed and will spend his energy early to fit that style. Half the field holds an Average 4F of 70 or better so we could see this one have to work a bit harder than last out to take the forward position he wants and possibly see that Final Figure suffer a little for it.

#7 O Besos 12/1

Owner of the fastest Last 4F Figure by a good amount, an easy way to break through that last out DTOP would be to appreciate the softer fractions of seeing a much longer route here stretching out to two turns for the first time. However, pedigree-wise, the dam's foals own the shortest “average winning distance” of this field.

#11 Mandaloun 9/2

Has shown some quick spread development going +6 to -1 to -6 indicating he should be okay to bump the distance up here. Connections will try blinkers today and maybe get him into stride a bit earlier for some position after he hung himself outside of rivals all through last out.

#12 Keepmeinmind 3/1

Consistently big with late speed, this one has dirt spreads around -9 to -10 last 3 out and should be bursting down the lane late. He owns the best Top Final Figure by several lengths so favoritism seems deserved. Question will be how he responds 77 days laid off. He did set a NEG on debut so running when fresh could be a question.

-Dustin Korth @predicteform


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