San Clemente Stakes (07/25/20)

Del Mar, Race 9

This week we shift our focus onto the grass where 3-year-old fillies go a mile. The dynamics of turf racing are much different than the dirt contests I've featured lately. Let's highlight some runners from a Turf Pace Figure standpoint.

#3 Laura's Light 3/1

Last race's stretchout produced a 62/74 TDL. The Turf Decline Line (TDL) is a more powerful subset of the PLOW. These TDL horses are signaling a turn of the corner on the grass showing a great increase in finishing ability. It's worth noting, this pattern was aided by a stretchout to 9 furlongs for the first time so I'm not sure a cutback here to 8 furlongs is ideal. As with any positive pattern, there are runners that explode right off of them and others that wait a race to fire second off a big Form Cycle Pattern.

#5 Croughavouke 6/1

Turf spreads are defined as Final minus 4F Figure with positive numbers indicating more velocity later in the race. Notice the dynamics of turf racing and definition of spread are opposite that of dirt racing. Using runner's last 3 outings from past to present of 64/71, 58/69, 55/74 we get a clear view of development with our spreads going +7 / +11 / +19. This is a runner incrementally distributing more and more energy toward the finish of the race. These lines culminated in a PLOW designation last out pinpointing this runner as one to watch here for a big performance.

#6 Cheermeister 6/1

Runner's Final Figures have been consistently in the high 70s which tower over this field. However, consider when we make decisions on turf, we're going to be leaning toward runners with bigger turf spreads. I'm leery of giving credit that Gulfstream turf form will translate well to the west coast here. These high Final Figures were aided by a track friendly to high 4F Figures. Also, worth noting the majority of solid turf runners, even when not running well, exhibit COMP designations trying dirt, but this one gave us a NEG instead. Current condition looks like a question mark.

#9 Warren's Showtime 7/2

Sports a “combo pattern” with last turf race a 61/71 PLOW followed with a 67/71 REV on dirt. These turf to dirt back to turf combos are big positive spots for runners. A runner that's doing new things no matter the surface is certainly in fit shape currently. Big decision will be deciding what value we need to side with the combo pattern here or the bigger turf spreads sported by other rivals.

#10 Guitty 20/1

Longshot comes in with a 54/72 PLOW which marks runner having the lowest 4F Figure of the field. The Final is competitive and value-wise I don't think you can go wrong including this one. Position will certainly be an issue and this one might need a good trip, but the numbers are certainly there for this one to look for an opening late.

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