Arlington Million (08/14/15)

In-depth analysis of the 2015 Arlington Million including Pace Figures and Form Cycle Pattern of each starter. Please refer to the Legend or Pattern Guide for back-up definitions and patterns.

The 33rd Arlington Million is a Grade I event for three year-olds and up run at 1 ¼ miles (10 furlongs) on the turf with a purse of $1mm. In contrast to last year's race in which seven runners started, the 2015 edition features a full field of 13 runners.

The Arlington Million is part of the Breeders' Cup Challenge – “Win and You're In” series.

Due to the large field, this race analysis will feature the most competitive three US runners and the top Europeans. Hardest Core, the 2014 Arlington Million winner, ran a 76.5 final Pace Figure, winning at 10/1 in stalking style, while this year it looks like closer to a 78 will be needed.

Slumber (7/2)

One of only three millionaires in the field, Slumber has finished one-two with his stablemate Big Blue Kitten in their last two starts. He followed the latter around the track and made up strong ground in the 11 furlong Grade I United Nations at Monmouth.

The top grass trainer in the country (with 15 graded stakes wins), Chad Brown, has three entered in this race including Big Blue Kitten (BBK) whose analysis is below. He's got an impressive workout tab which includes a bullet work (best of the day) on 8/3. From a form perspective, all systems are go.

Turning to his Pace Figures, in five starts this year he's ran (recent first) – 80, 76, 77, 80 and 78 with distances from 9-11 furlongs. His final figure foundation is a solid 77-78 which is likely what we should expect in this performance. He owns the fastest last final figure and his lifetime top figure is 82, just 1/10th of a point behind BBK.

The Play: Fringe Contender – with all eyes shining on the likely favorite BBK, there might be more value with this runner, especially given that he has been first or second in six of eight at this distance. In either case, it's a possibility of a Chad-Chad exacta.

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