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G2 Rebel Stakes (03/13/21)

Oaklawn Park, Race 11

8 ½ Furlongs, Dirt

#1 Caddo River 9/5

Runner has triggered a form cycle pattern in each of his four starts. Was a winner off a 4F-heavy DTOP setting a 75/73 SOFT on today's track with the SOFT pattern indicating horse likely had more to give but asking for the effort wasn't necessary that day. Owns the fastest 4F Figure of the field whether sprinting or routing. Consider top 4F speed dangerous at any distance.

#2 Big Lake 12/1

Has done well to develop the COMP debut into a REV for first route but even the improvement last out to a 70/73 ranks middle of the field in most categories and last in Top Final achieved.

#3 Hozier 12/1

Good to see runner trigger the REV when routing to get a 67/73 victory last out but did so off a NEG debut so we don't see the incremental development to spring off of yet with this one.

#4 Get Her Number 8/1

Built some stamina trying turf in first couple career starts then professional to set a 71/68 COMP first time on the main track while also handling two turns on that dirt. Could be any horse really though coming into today for his 3-year old debut as the most laid off of the field at 168 days.

#6 Keepmeinmind 4/1

Boasts the Top Final of the field with a big 79 last fall in the juvenile campaign. Quick turnaround in regard to energy distribution moving from a 75/69 NEG and shifting that dirt spread (4F minus Final) from +6 to consistent -9 or -10 spreads in each of the next 3 starts. Needed a race to get career started, wonder if same is needed to get sophomore season started.

#7 Concert Tour 2/1

Gets first look at two turns today but started on the right track with a 75/78 COMP, the most impressive debut of the field. Last out's 74/72 victory triggered a SOFT pattern indicating more was likely in the tank if needed for that one. The “compression” of the sprint tries where the dirt spread came back under or close to 0 is usually a great indication a runner could appreciate more distance.

#8 Super Stock 6/1

He's the most experienced of the group while displaying a dramatic pattern of spread progression as far as distributing energy more evenly over a race. After sprinting to spreads of +6 and +8, the three route tries went +2 to -8 to -13. Gets a reset here coming in off 139 days rest so question as to whether we'll see the more geared up version of this one when he routed a 77/75 or the reserved 63/76 coming on later.

-Dustin Korth @predicteform

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