2020 Kentucky Derby (Posts 1-5)

#1 Finnick The Fierce 50/1

Had the Derby gone on 1st week of May, it seems the connections had this one ready to make a timely breakout performance when he popped a 76/77 in the Arkansas Derby running a respectable 3rd at big 62/1 odds. The 68/78 at Churchill Downs was a nice practice run for this Derby track and quite competitive with this field for a 50/1 runner. To be fair though, that was a different ballgame as Finnick ran that race in the clear in a 4-horse field. Today, he'll not only have 16 other rivals to deal with, but stands a good chance of being pocketed from the dreaded rail position.

#2 Max Player 30/1

Came off the 4-month summer break to display exciting new form improving on his best winter Final Figure by 8 points. Runner broke through the DTOP and ran a huge dirt spread (4F minus Final) of -16. Position and speed are certainly important when running on dirt, but this is the kind of running line one would need to overcome a #2 post position that leaves a runner likely sitting behind traffic. If a lane opens up late, look for Max to be ready to run at the targets up front. A lot needs to happen first, however, for him to have that opportunity.

#3 Enforceable 30/1

Another known for a late-running style, this one comes off a similar summer break where he posted his best 4F Figure as well as Final Figure in a route. It is essentially a hidden DTOP. Much like Max Player, DTOPs are a bit more concerning when they are part of an ongoing campaign rather than the beginning of a new form cycle so timing is important in assessing DTOPs. There isn't a race in the entire career where Enforceable wasn't passing horses late, however, I think there's a question of well he'll handle the traffic of a 17-horse field. He does like to go wide regularly and could be left with too much to do to be passing any horses late that matter.

#4 Storm The Court 50/1

Gained stardom at 2 after taking the BC Juvenile in upset fashion prompting a great TV moment when winning trainer Peter Eurton got to celebrate by being interviewed by his daughter, Britney. The sophomore season hasn't quite progressed toward this 10-furlong stretchout today. He's remained a bit forward throughout the year with dirt spreads going +2, +4, and +1 in his three route tries. A runner posting positive numbers in the dirt spread formula in a stretchout really needs to be enjoying a pace advantage on the field to be effective, a scenario unlikely with 16 rivals. He does draw nicely here as you see him having that 4F Figure advantage over all surrounding runners all the way out to the #9 post, but he'll need to drastically improve his 73-range Final Figures. Even with an opportunity for a clean break, there haven't been any strong indications present that a form reversal will happen here allowing him to get all 10 furlongs competitively. Last out's turf try can be a good spot for a trainer to put some stamina into a runner, but I think we're likely asking for more improvement than just one turf conditioner can give.

#5 Major Fed 50/1

Unlike our last two runners, Fed's big Final Figure jump from 69 to 76 did not come off a long break. It was part of a campaign. We would prefer to see 60 days rest off a significant move like this, a requirement he is messing with the borderline on. I'd prefer to see some incremental improvement and a more solid foundation to fall back on as he not only needs to run back to that 76 Final to be competitive here but also improve on it. Seems a tough task after falling throughout the spring from a 73 to 69.

More: Posts 7-12 Posts 13-18 Guest Picks

Follow me on Twitter @predicteform


Search Blogs


Welcome to Predicteform

Predicteform.com Pace Figures, Form Cycle Patterns and Value Play picks will tell you if a horse is likely to improve or regress in its next start. Easily accessible from any computer, tablet or mobile device, Predicteform.com services horse players of all types. Access to printing PDF's is also available.

How do I get started?
Visit the Learn tab on the navigation bar where you'll find the Predicteform.com Legend and Pattern Guide. These two tools combined will give you the knowledge you need to use Predicteform.com:

The Legend helps to explain how best to read the Pace Figures. It clearly defines what every line, symbol and figure means.

The Pattern Guide highlights Form Cycle Patterns, a series of 12 symbols/abbreviations, each with its own definition. These patterns are the easiest and most effective way to evaluate what we can expect from a horse's future performance and expected form cycle.

Value Play Picks use the automated technology and process to evaluate every track and race as well as the Predicteform.com team's analytical expertise, we can now rank every horse by its likelihood of winning the race and value (initially relative to morning line odds).
Value Play picks are included as part of all subscriptions and you can view now on the Free Race of the Day.

Blinker's Off - We have also published founder Cary Fotias' unabridged book on Form Cycle Analysis, available by chapter free to all who register.

Free Race of the Day – Every day, we will make available the Pace Figures and Value Play Picks for at least one race. Pace Figures are what subscribers, both in the Value Play Picks and the comprehensive "advanced" view, can see for every horse of every race at every track. Check out today's free race here.

Free Track of the Weekend - Each weekend (Fri. - Sun.), Predicteform will offer access to the Value Play Picks, Pace Figures and Form Cycle Patterns. Access to this data will provide new users an ability to follow along and learn how read, analyze and use the Predicteform technology.

Where can I see sample races?
Click here to read examples of the Pace Figures and Form Cycle Pattern Analysis for the 2016 Preakness Stakes. Many more race examples and other content has been made available within the Blog section of the site.

Feedback is incredibly important to the Predicteform.com team as we attempt to keep the spirit of Equiform.com founder, Cary Fotias' handicapping vision alive while also providing you with the best possible product. We encourage you to register/log in and send us comments, thoughts and questions about the site through Customer Support.

Let us know what you like and what you want to see more of. We are big believers in collaboration and hope you are as excited as we are about Predicteform.com.