Del Mar, Race 10
Dirt, 10 Furlongs
.
#1 Tripoli 5/1
Former turf runner took well to the surface switch using his training in energy distribution from turf and applying it to trigger a REV first time on dirt with a 71/76 victory. Dirt spreads that are mathematically negative (4F minus Final) point to horses that can benefit from going longer.
#2 Tizamagician 5/1
Grades stakes proven at this track going longer off a “deep” 53/74 victory. Does his best work near the lead but will now need to cut back in distance against a group that can easily match early splits with him leaving him susceptible to an undesirable trip.
#3 Dr Post 4/1
East coaster invades off a 70/82 victory and as a runner who's form has really zig-zagged around, you'd expect regression to be imminent off a Lifetime Top Final here.
#4 Royal Ship (BRZ) 7/2
Welcomed a switch to dirt this year when prompting a 72/78 DTOP victory and did well to stretch out his dirt spread as he stretched out in distance with a 69/78 coming next. Took a regression last out to 70/74 on the cut back when faced with a quicker pace scenario so look for him to revert back to a better fit at today's distance.
#5 Express Train 3/1
Has been consistently good as of late but looks tough to yield favoritism to as he'll be challenged from both ends. On the front end, there's plenty here that can match his 4F and 6F Figures and on the back end, there are deeper runners with similar Final Figures but bigger dirt spreads. Contender but lacks value in the spot.
#6 Magic On Tap 20/1
Likely lacks the energy distribution to keep up with this class over this distance. He's never posted a Final Figure more than a point or so above his 4F Figures and the Final Figure in general needs great improvement today.
#7 Independence Hall 5/1
Hasn't shown much since shipping west after a big 80/80 performance back in January chasing Knicks Go. They'll experiment with blinkers here to try getting him focused in. He owns the best Last 4F and Average 4F Figures so it's an equipment change that makes sense.
#8 Sheriff Brown 30/1
Tries deep waters again after dominating smaller circuits but greatly needs to move forward off last out's 63/70 on this track to compete. Not sure there's much potential to improve here as he's a runner coming off a recent 3-race win streak rather than one seeking to find his ceiling.
#9 Cupid's Claws 15/1
His best work comes at very deep dirt spreads in the -20 range where he's allowed to settle into slower 4F scenarios and sustain on. Will have a lot of work to do against this group with that running line.
My Picks: 1-4-5
-Dustin Korth @predicteform