Alabama Stakes (08/15/20)

Saratoga, Race 9

The Grade 1 Alabama Stakes from Saratoga sends sophomore fillies 10 furlongs. Every runner here will be stretching out at least an extra 1/8 mile from what they've seen so far in the early stages of their careers.

#1 Envoutante 8/1

Really solid foundation with nice form development over both dirt and turf over the young career so far. Built off a COMP dirt debut to score in start #3 then ran a 62/73 TDL on the turf. TDL is a powerful indicator of a horse that's figured out how to reserve energy for late burst which we then seen in the switch to dirt scoring a 60/73 win. Last out popped to 73/77 DTOP and while this is generally a regression angle, younger horses can move through these DTOPs as their ceiling is still unknown. The 73/77 were not substantial from other dirt numbers we've seen from this runner either so another strong performance could be in the cards. My upset pick.

#2 Spice Is Nice 3/1

Another runner coming off a DTOP, however, this one took quite a substantial jump to 70/78 off a weaker foundation of running 70 Final Figures. This DTOP falls much more in line with expected regression than what we seen from the #1.

#4 Bonny South 8/1

Figured herself out after the break debuting this year to a 68/73 REV. The REV pattern indicates a “reversal” where a runner has posted a higher Final Figure than 4F Figure for the first time. Bonny continued that late energy type form to a 66/76 win next out. Last out's 72/76 showed a boost to pace running with tougher. This also tough spot probably requires her to relax a bit off that pace move last out in order to boost her Final Figure late. This can happen, but we'll be reliant on a set up so I'd need to be offered good odds to see all of that unfold.

#5 Swiss Skydiver 1/1

Bad news for those that want to beat the favorite, her 6.5-point advantage in the field's Last 4F Figures is a massive advantage on dirt at any distance. We actually consider any 2-point advantage in 4F Figure a threat to wire the field. If she happens to lock up in a hot duel, we do have several options that can run on late here though.

#7 Fire Coral 30/1

She's had 3 starts since her 65/73 REV to show us her ceiling since that meaningful form cycle move and hasn't broke through a 73 Final. Looks to be in over her head with this entry.


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