Predicteform Predicteform

Belmont Prop Bets (06/06/14)

John Ewing, Director of Research and Analytics, @johnewing
Prop bets for California Chrome in the 2014 Belmont Stakes. Odds courtesy of Bovada.lv.



California Chrome, the winner of the Kentucky Derby and Preakness, is on the threshold of greatness. The modest colt is looking to become the first Triple Crown winner since Affirmed in 1978. With California Chrome's pursuit of a horse racing immortality, we look at a few prop bets leading up to the Test of the Champion.

Will California Chrome win the 2014 Triple Crown?
  • Yes: EVEN
  • No: -140

There are three true contenders in the Belmont Stakes. The odds imply that California Chrome has a 50 percent chance of becoming just the twelfth horse to win the Triple Crown.

Will California Chrome win by 2 lengths or more?
  • Yes: +225
  • No: -350

The public's confidence in California Chrome to win and win big has waned. When this prop bet was released a few weeks ago, the odds that Chrome would win by 2 lengths or more was Even Money. Those odds implied that Chrome had a 50% chance to win by 2 or more lengths, now it is down to 31%.

How many times will “California Chrome” be mentioned by the race announcer from start of race to finish of the race?
  • Over/Under: 15.5

This prop bet will most likely be decided by the race itself. Another horse winning could produce an under, but a California Chrome victory easily could send this prop bet over.

Will California Chrome race again in 2014 after the Belmont?
  • Yes: -140
  • No: EVEN

Horse racing experts estimate that California Chrome's stud value ranges between $15 million and $30 million pending the results of the Triple Crown. A valuation on the high end of the estimate could make it difficult for the owners to race Chrome after the Belmont.

What will be the Nielsen TV Rating?
  • Over/Under: 11

Viewership for the Belmont stakes almost doubles when a horse is attempting to win the Triple Crown. From 2009-2013, with no Triple Crown at stake, viewership ranged between 4.9 million and 7.7 million. In 2008, when Big Brown tried to win the Triple Crown the audience jumped to 13.1 million. To go over a Nielsen TV rating of 11, the 2014 Belmont Stakes would need approximately 13 million viewers.

For the full Belmont Analysis, click here.

Comments

Search Blogs

Archive

Welcome to Predicteform

Predicteform.com Pace Figures, Form Cycle Patterns and Value Play picks will tell you if a horse is likely to improve or regress in its next start. Easily accessible from any computer, tablet or mobile device, Predicteform.com services horse players of all types. Access to printing PDF's is also available.

How do I get started?
Visit the Learn tab on the navigation bar where you'll find the Predicteform.com Legend and Pattern Guide. These two tools combined will give you the knowledge you need to use Predicteform.com:

The Legend helps to explain how best to read the Pace Figures. It clearly defines what every line, symbol and figure means.

The Pattern Guide highlights Form Cycle Patterns, a series of 12 symbols/abbreviations, each with its own definition. These patterns are the easiest and most effective way to evaluate what we can expect from a horse's future performance and expected form cycle.

Value Play Picks use the automated technology and process to evaluate every track and race as well as the Predicteform.com team's analytical expertise, we can now rank every horse by its likelihood of winning the race and value (initially relative to morning line odds).
Value Play picks are included as part of all subscriptions and you can view now on the Free Race of the Day.

Blinker's Off - We have also published founder Cary Fotias' unabridged book on Form Cycle Analysis, available by chapter free to all who register.

Free Race of the Day – Every day, we will make available the Pace Figures and Value Play Picks for at least one race. Pace Figures are what subscribers, both in the Value Play Picks and the comprehensive "advanced" view, can see for every horse of every race at every track. Check out today's free race here.

Free Track of the Weekend - Each weekend (Fri. - Sun.), Predicteform will offer access to the Value Play Picks, Pace Figures and Form Cycle Patterns. Access to this data will provide new users an ability to follow along and learn how read, analyze and use the Predicteform technology.

Where can I see sample races?
Click here to read examples of the Pace Figures and Form Cycle Pattern Analysis for the 2016 Preakness Stakes. Many more race examples and other content has been made available within the Blog section of the site.

Feedback is incredibly important to the Predicteform.com team as we attempt to keep the spirit of Equiform.com founder, Cary Fotias' handicapping vision alive while also providing you with the best possible product. We encourage you to register/log in and send us comments, thoughts and questions about the site through Customer Support.

Let us know what you like and what you want to see more of. We are big believers in collaboration and hope you are as excited as we are about Predicteform.com.