G3 Holy Bull S. (01/30/21)

Gulfstream Park, Race 11

Dirt, 8 ½ furlongs

The Road to the Derby kicks into full swing this weekend with points being awarded on both coasts. We'll turn our focus to the east here with a nice field of 9 entered for the Holy Bull at Gulfstream Park. There's no shortage of sophomore runners coming in off positive moves here to choose from. Let's use our Form Cycle Patterns for lightly-raced runners to assess what each needs to do to keep propelling forward today.

#2 Willy Boi 10/1

The debut 73/68 NEG just missed qualifying as a COMP, and the 82/68 NPT against winners 2nd out is certainly a nice conditioning move with the 82 being the fastest 4F Figure endured by this field. Willy can move forward now BUT needs to use that NPT as something to relax off of and keep the tempo up late now stretching out to two turns.

#3 Papetu 15/1

Did well to get better through winter training debuting as a sophomore a mile to a 72/73. That route was still one turn so needs to adjust to losing that long backstretch that makes it easier for runners to slowly work themselves into position. Half the field here has experience working two turns while matching similar Figures.

#4 Amount 6/1

A debut 65/68 COMP typically signals next out improvement and can be especially good for today. A compression line (COMP) is triggered when a first timer distributes their energy evenly over the course of a race making the runner a candidate to appreciate a stretchout in distance. Will need to pick it up to keep from getting too out of position with most of the field able to match the 68 Final but while establishing position earlier with faster 4F Figures.

#5 Tarantino 8/1

In his three turf starts, he's progressed his turf spread (Final minus 4F) from +10 to +7 to +5. Typically, you'll see strong turf routers progress in an opposite manner learning to relax earlier and burst later. Instead, Tarantino has put on early speed as he's progressed thus shrinking the turf spread. However, we haven't seen any falloff in his Final Figures through this development. This conditioning of building higher “sustainable paces” can be an excellent indicator of a runner that would take to the dynamics of a dirt race well. The only question may be liking the physical surface itself.

#6 Prime Factor 3/1

Was in control throughout the 78/71 NEG romp. Likely could have avoided triggering a NEG as he didn't need to do much late, but still needs to move to two turns while facing winners that can match his 4F Figure that did the job last time. Should be well-respected but wouldn't want to back too short of a price given this race is nothing comparable to the debut.

#7 Greatest Honour 5/2

Textbook development moving his COMP debut to an NPT before triggering a Reversal (REV) first time routing. He has a win at this track and distance with a competitive Final Figure already. Favoritism isn't a surprise off all that goodness, but one question could certainly be his effectiveness in this field if repeating that 62 4F Figure. He'll need to stay within striking range of a field that puts up much faster 4F Figures while hoping for a clean trip. If any rival gets comfortable with forward position, it's very difficult in a dirt race for a late runner to catch up no matter how strong they might be. I like to see better odds when backing a horse that likely can't just take a race for himself without help from weakening rivals.

#8 Sittin On Go 5/1

Has displayed a nice balance of speed and late finish while routing sticking around the -2 to -4 dirt spread range. However, the Final Figures regressed in all three starts prompting a bit of a break. He'll need to fire his best here as the rival with the second least recency of the field.

#9 Awesome Gerry 8/1

We've seen his dirt spreads start to “compress” lately with the 4F Figure drawing closer to the Final Figure. Every other rival here has put up negative dirt spreads when it comes to routing. If this one can relax a bit and trigger a Reversal (REV), we could easily see him capitalize on good early position.

-Dustin Korth @predicteform


Search Blogs


Welcome to Predicteform

Predicteform.com Pace Figures, Form Cycle Patterns and Value Play picks will tell you if a horse is likely to improve or regress in its next start. Easily accessible from any computer, tablet or mobile device, Predicteform.com services horse players of all types. Access to printing PDF's is also available.

How do I get started?
Visit the Learn tab on the navigation bar where you'll find the Predicteform.com Legend and Pattern Guide. These two tools combined will give you the knowledge you need to use Predicteform.com:

The Legend helps to explain how best to read the Pace Figures. It clearly defines what every line, symbol and figure means.

The Pattern Guide highlights Form Cycle Patterns, a series of 12 symbols/abbreviations, each with its own definition. These patterns are the easiest and most effective way to evaluate what we can expect from a horse's future performance and expected form cycle.

Value Play Picks use the automated technology and process to evaluate every track and race as well as the Predicteform.com team's analytical expertise, we can now rank every horse by its likelihood of winning the race and value (initially relative to morning line odds).
Value Play picks are included as part of all subscriptions and you can view now on the Free Race of the Day.

Blinker's Off - We have also published founder Cary Fotias' unabridged book on Form Cycle Analysis, available by chapter free to all who register.

Free Race of the Day – Every day, we will make available the Pace Figures and Value Play Picks for at least one race. Pace Figures are what subscribers, both in the Value Play Picks and the comprehensive "advanced" view, can see for every horse of every race at every track. Check out today's free race here.

Free Track of the Weekend - Each weekend (Fri. - Sun.), Predicteform will offer access to the Value Play Picks, Pace Figures and Form Cycle Patterns. Access to this data will provide new users an ability to follow along and learn how read, analyze and use the Predicteform technology.

Where can I see sample races?
Click here to read examples of the Pace Figures and Form Cycle Pattern Analysis for the 2016 Preakness Stakes. Many more race examples and other content has been made available within the Blog section of the site.

Feedback is incredibly important to the Predicteform.com team as we attempt to keep the spirit of Equiform.com founder, Cary Fotias' handicapping vision alive while also providing you with the best possible product. We encourage you to register/log in and send us comments, thoughts and questions about the site through Customer Support.

Let us know what you like and what you want to see more of. We are big believers in collaboration and hope you are as excited as we are about Predicteform.com.