2021 Kentucky Derby (Posts 11-20)

#11 Dynamic One 20/1

Smooth development from the COMP debut through a REV-NPT-SOFT before getting caught up in a hot pace last out. Upset contender.

#12 Helium 50/1

Only has one start in a dirt route and is most laid off of the field. I question his prep for this spot.

#13 Hidden Stash 50/1

Has passed horses late in every start so far, just needs to hope for a pace to run into.

#14 Essential Quality 2/1

Favorite owns 2 of only 3 80+ Final Figures throughout the fields races. Has built dirt spread from -3 in the BC Juvenile to -11 last out while maintaining that 80 Final. Deserving favorite.

#15 Rock Your World 5/1

Let out an impressive 78/75 COMP in his only dirt start after prepping on turf. I worry about it being a hidden DTOP in reality.

#16 King Fury – Scratched

#17 Highly Motivated 10/1

65/72 REV triggered an uptick when stretching out as he almost pulled off a huge upset matching figures with Essential Quality at 69/80. Could have already ran his Super Bowl and be vulnerable to regression.

#18 Super Stock 30/1

Runner has the opposite pattern of what we usually look for in stretchouts of a tightening dirt spread going from positive into the negatives. Instead this one has been ramping up his form in reverse from a -13 to a +2 over last 3 starts indicating much more early energy spent. However, he's also used this angle to find better positions and found his first victory against winners last out with a high sustained pace at 77/75. Perhaps can fire out here and hold with an all-time best effort at big odds.

#19 Soup And Sandwich 30/1

Nicely consistent moving from a 74/71 COMP to REV to 72/75 last out. Has been a nice consistent horse but may not have a higher ceiling to peak to beyond that.

#20 Bourbonic 30/1

Has never broken a 70 Final and won his way in on the heels of a pace breakdown where his -17 dirt spread gave him a thrilling victory but leaves him well out of this race.

Posts 1-10 | Guest Picks

-Dustin Korth @predicteform


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