Gulfstream Park, Race 11
Turf, 8 Furlongs
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#1 Champagne Ivy 12/1
She was a bit more forward last out with a +2 turf spread after three straight in the +9 range including triggering a 63/72 PLOW. She's ran well throughout different race flows but never quite stacks up. May see another forward-early type effort fleeing the inside post or risk being buried. She's one of two in here still a maiden and was beaten by the other maiden two races back.
#2 Hana Lima (GB) 9/2
Debuted to a respectable 67/73 victory and has a right to move forward now as often the case with second time starters, especially when connections confidently move them into stakes competition. However, I wonder how strong the field she beat was. Turf is generally a race of acceleration with the real work being done down the stretch and the entire field slowed up from the ½ mile split to the ¾ split to the finish.
#3 Karakatsie 5/2
She earned a TDL in third career start, then matched the turf spread of +6 from that race with a big bump forward to 72/78, the best set of 8+ furlong figures for this field. She was only beaten by a graded stakes winning rival last out and now faces a field where only one other rival has ever contested winners. Very deserving favorite.
#4 Lady Emily 8/1
She has one of the more “forward” running lines of the group with -5 turf spread on debut. She could be excused for being much the best in her maiden score likely having more to give late if she needed, but at face value, the Final Figure is 3-5 points slower than others that have tried 7.5 furlongs.
#5 Charges Dropped 8/1
Improved Final Figure in each of her three starts and flashed a nice closing kick with a 66/75 maiden score coming into this one. Any runner with the biggest last turf spread (+9 in this case) and a Final Figure within a few points of top rivals should be considered for the win position here.
#6 Starship Nterprise 20/1
One of the more experienced runners, she has been inching her way upwards over 9 maiden tries finally scoring when dropped to face straight maidens. After all this, you have to buy in that her ceiling is lower than what she needs to pop today to surprise this field.
#7 Tik Tok Famous (GB) 3/1
She owns the best Top Final just shy of an 80 last race out while in control the entire way. Remains a mystery how she might handle possible early traffic or a more pressured stretch here against better but nothing to knock from the debut.
#8 Vintage Style 15/1
Took a couple practice spins on dirt we'll ignore before liking the switch to turf. Has been willing late but just hung up behind better finishing second in both. One of two maidens in the bunch, she'll look to turn the tables on Tik Tok Famous utilizing the extra half furlong here and experience running in traffic. Good value to run into the exotics if that morning line is close.
#9 Smart Spending 6/1
She's the only one here with a second win off a 70/75 where the race flow prompted a substantial jump in her usual 4F Figure the remainder of that field couldn't handle. Connections weren't confident in this one at the beginning offering her up until the maiden victory. Would appear her best performances were set up with race flows that benefited her but those Figures still lack against this group. Looks to go off as an underlay.
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