New York Stallion S. (04/17/21)

Aqueduct, Race 7

6 ½ Furlongs, Dirt

#1 Devious Mo 5/1

Runner took a big step forward with the 78/62 NPT prompting a next out 70/67 victory. However, this one sports a running style of wanting to be prominent early. The more relaxed 4F Figure last out may have been a product of enjoying a big class drop rather than an internal change in energy distribution. Will need to ramp back up to run early with today's field and a regression on the Final Figure looks likely.

#3 It's Gravy 7/2

Been consistent running right in the +7 to +10 dirt spread range (4F minus Final) while being competitive with stakes company. Can forgive last out as he got a bit in over his head trying to go with the odds-on favorite early and should bounce back to his old Figure range here today. Lone victory came going longer in the mud. Odds are a bit light for one that consistently comes up short in this spot.

#4 Sinful Dancer 5/2

It's widely accepted that most runners move forward with their 2nd career start, but this is especially noteworthy after trigging a COMP on debut. Runners that can show the professionalism to balance their energy spent on first asking often beat other lightly-raced runners that tend to spend their energy earlier. Gets slight favoritism on the morning line today and I would tend to agree.

#5 Market Alert 3/1

Runner has the least recency in the field trying to fire here 55 days rested. Last out's 73/69 victory came with more even energy distribution while still setting a competitive 4F Figure. However, it did come while dropping out of stakes company and trying Lasix. He'll lose both those angles today.

#7 Lobsta 7/2

When assessing routers cutting back to sprints, you can use the “race within the race” to assess them by taking the 4F/6F Figures out of their routes. With that we can call last out's try a 78/70 for purposes of today's sprint. On those last out Figures alone, this one could certainly rank Top Contender if he can handle being set down for the quicker fractions of a shorter try.

-Dustin Korth @predicteform


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