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G1 Blue Grass Stakes (04/09/22)

$1,000,000 Grade I Blue Grass Stakes

Keeneland – Race 9 – Dirt – 9 Furlongs

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#1 Commandperformance 12/1

He was a failed 1/20 favorite in his sophomore debut but did come off the bench with a running line featuring more late speed at 69h/73h. 2 of the 3 juvenile tries had higher 4F than Final so he could go in the right direction here with extra distance.

#2 Fenwick 20/1

The 71/76 DTOP came a bit out of nowhere. 3-year olds are more eligible to break through DTOPs than more established runners are but this one lacks any foundation to suggest it's likely to duplicate that effort much less move forward off it.

#3 Trademark 30/1

Was a bit geared up upon '22 debut posting a forward 76/62 NPT but moved nicely off that conditioner to a more distributed 69/73h. Another move forward can give him a shot to find the exotics.

#4 Zandon 5/2

Professional looking resume with the COMP on debut and a REV for first route. Moves off a 66h/76 here and should be a threat in the lane. Worry is that he's one of the slower runners in the field to the 4F point and will need a proper set-up and trip to win today, but won't offer much for win odds.

#5 Volcanic 20/1

Looks to break through a 75/75 DTOP here. Usually a spot for regression, a DTOP in the 2nd start of a 3-year old's career is less of a concern as the runner's ceiling hasn't been established yet. Could see this one give a good effort and hit the board.

#6 Emmanuel 9/2

Strong look to debut in a route and post a COMP then move to a REV with a big late speed dirt spread. The 67/71 last out was a bit of a bounce but he has the Top Lifetime Final of the field and is eligible to run back to that today. Win candidate.

#7 Golden Glider 20/1

Put up back-to-back NPTs putting him in a spot to really break out when only on a 66 4F Figure last out, but only matched his previous Final Figures. Consistent type appears to be at his ceiling which leaves him just outside exotics contention.

#8 Ethereal Road 20/1

Lone win came when sitting on a very slow 4F Figure then blasting off. He did match that Final Figure last out while putting forth more early effort as a positive, but still rates to have a lot of work to do against this group.

#9 Rattle N Roll 8/1

Best running line comes from today's track with a 72h/75h DTOP in a juvenile Grade I. Showed some progress in first two sophomore starts moving dirt spread from -4 to -10 while increasing the Final Figure. Experiments with blinkers today.

#10 Smile Happy 9/5

Today's solid favorite was a COMP routing on debut and has since strung together a pair of 76 Final Figures, not something any other runner here can claim.

#11 Blackadder 20/1

Comes off a pair of wins but needs a big jump forward to catch today's rivals with just a 64/66 REV his best dirt line.

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@predicteform: 10-6-5

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