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G2 Stephen Foster S. (07/02/22)

$750,000 Grade II Stephen Foster Stakes

Churchill Downs | Race 10 | Dirt | 9 Furlongs

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#1 Caddo River 10/1

Moving right along with slight increases in 4F Figure paired to larger increases in Final Figure five consecutive races now. Sooner or later, you have to expect a runner will bounce off a ceiling with that kind of trend going and finally getting the call to move up to stakes action as an older horse feels like it could be that spot. For double-digits though, worth a look on one ticket to root him to sustain that big last-out running line. Recent spin here was a 74h/83.

#2 Americanrevolution 7/2

Habitual winner last year ran into a good group for first try off the break failing as favorite but posting a respectable 74h/81. Race flow wasn't great for him there while perhaps being a bit geared up off the break so I expect a better try today.

#3 Olympiad 5/2

Comes in rolling on a 4-win streak including Lifetime Top Final in last at 68h/83. That came when allowed to settle into a softer 4F Figure than most of this field usually prompts so expect him to be doing some work out of position, or be seen bumping that metric up a bit today giving an expected regression back down a few points in Final Figure. Still rates him a contender but does make him more vulnerable and beatable if price slips too low.

#4 Title Ready 15/1

Saw a nice move forward off the CPT in last with a big dirt spread of -15 indicating nice late speed. Threatens to move into the exotics late for a price off the 66/81.

#5 Proxy 9/2

Stalker seems to often get caught somewhere in between belonging at the level and having a rival with similar style take better advantage when race flow is favorable. 72h/81 here last out leaves him in a spot to just miss again.

#6 Mandaloun 2/1

Came off the long break to a 69/78h SOFT victory over at Fair Grounds, a running line that is well-improved over 3-year old performance on that track before prompting a 76h/84 in the Derby at today's oval.

#7 Last Samurai 8/1

Body of work as a whole is a notch below these with predictable 4F Figures through the mid 60s into Finals through the mid 70s. Needs a favorable set-up and trip to get running late and catch a piece.

Suggested Wagers

$2 Exacta Key Box .4. / .1. .2. .3. .4. .6. ($10)

$1 Trifecta .6. / .2. .3. .4. .5. .6. / .2. .3. .4. .5. .6. ($20)

$0.50 Trifecta .1. .6. / .1. .2. .5. .6. / .1. .2. .4. .5. .6. ($9)

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