Queen's Plate (09/12/20)

Woodbine, Race 10

1 ¼ miles (10 furlongs) on Synthetic

#2 Merveilleux 10/1

A lot to overcome here. Not only would she have to turn the tables on the Woodbine Oaks winner from last out, but she also faces a full field of boys in this one. From a Pace Figure standpoint, she has a 70/77 DTOP pattern to overcome. While developing 3-year olds are among the most eligible group to break through DTOP patterns, they are most often signals of next out regression. Sustaining, much less improving, off a run that seen a 6-point 4F Figure increase and 5-point Final Figure increase is a bit much to ask without ample recovery time.

#6 Halo Again 5/1

I appreciate the development in professionalism regarding relaxing early. When hooked up with sprinters on debut, he was a bit forward posting a 79/70 NEG and returned to that distance two back for a better distributed 72/75. The large majority of sprinters are going to be running higher 4F Figures than Final Figures, and we seen that ability to distribute energy over the race apparent going 9 furlongs last out to a 65/78 and -13 spread.

#7 Glorious Tribute 30/1

The three recent races bring a well-defined pattern with them as runner continues to add distance with each start. Using our dirt spread formula (4F minus Final), we find the last three races go -2 to -8 to the most recent -13 showing us the runner continues to distribute energy later in the race with each start. This points well to today's extra distance and certainly looks like an option to run into the exotics for big value. The Final Figure needs 2 points improvement to be competitive with other rivals when it comes to win contention (5 lengths at 10 furlongs).

#9 Dotted Line 8/1

Has always been a “compressed” type runner with even spreads in all sprint tries with -10 to -13 range in routes. 2 back, runner interestingly posted a higher 6F Figure of 66 than 4F Figure of 64. The majority of these contests come back as “races of deceleration” so this was an indication he was a little late to get into stride and ran out of ground with that extra reserved energy. Last out, made the move a bit more on time but couldn't quite get the distance with that slightly more “forward” run. There's indications he's meant to get 10 furlongs against this field effectively but needs to develop a consistent running style first.

#10 Curlin's Voyage 5/2

Filly faces males for the first time while being pegged the 2nd choice on the morning line odds. Came off the break for the 3-year old debut well geared up to an 80/79 DTOP. Next up, the drop to a 69/75 saw her in a good spot still proving best while relaxing early and regressing on the Final Figure after that DTOP. After those couple sprints to get the campaign going, stretched out to a powerful 71/79 proving she belongs here with that big Final Figure while also posting a nice 4F positional advantage on this field. The only other runners that have routed with faster 4F starts draw to the far outside and are in need of more balanced runs to improve their Final Figures to match hers.

#12 Clayton 2/1

Runner has been spectacular off the bat. Improved off the 74/75 COMP debut to 69/76 as a sophomore despite a troubled trip. 2nd route moved off a SOFT win to 63/78 last out. The -15 spread is the biggest of the field's last outings concerning late pace. Understandable to give this one the status of morning line favorite, but competition seems to inch a bit closer as the distance increases as well. We have other rivals coming off similar spreads and Finals that are offering bigger payouts, all while holding 4F Figures for routes in the mid 60s leaving this one some traffic to negotiate. Solid contender but tough to make a case for value here.

#13 Mighty Heart 20/1 vs #14 Tecumseh's War 12/1

Both runners exit a race that majorly set up for closers but put up impressive performances sticking around to hit the board after posting lifetime top 4F Figures in a race where the eventual winner came 10th to 1st while the top 3 runners after ½ mile finished in the bottom 4 of that 12-horse field. While Mighty Heart has come a long way developing from a 64/66 COMP into that 75/77 DTOP, such a peak performance will often require ample recovery time before running back to those numbers. While the future looks solid for that one, the better option for next out improvement goes to Tecumseh's War who had more experience sustaining faster 4F Figures thus his 76/77 only triggered an NPT, a positive conditioning move that produces a next out increase in Final Figure about 70% of the time.

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