Race 11 | Dirt | 12 Furlongs
$1,500,000 Grade I Belmont Stakes | 3YOs
#1 We The People
He's unproven in stressful spots as the wins have come against weaker and most recently while being allowed to sit on an uncontested lead with a modest 69h 4F Figure. While it's easy to scoff at the 2/1 morning line here seemingly offering no value as a runner that hasn't accomplished what the rest of the field has, the problem is he may not need to prove anything here yet again other than just making it 12 furlongs. Tough to pin down any rival that should go with him early here so race flow could be in his favor. You have to either key him on top or leave him completely out of the money.
#2 Skippylongstocking
Love the foundation of 3 straight NPTs culminating in a DTOP, a string of races that put a lot of conditioning into this runner. Has since been able to settle into longer races allowing for improved Finals as the dirt spreads took a turn for better late speed at -8 and -11 in last couple. Has still been a notch below the best as of late but offers good value to threaten for the money here.
#3 Nest
Filly takes on the boys here as the only runner in field to string together 3 straight 77+ Finals coming in while looking to get through a DTOP/NPT combo. Although Secret Oath has been the more touted filly in terms of expectations to beat males, we expressed our concern she didn't have the herd dynamics to look male rivals in the eye and duel to which she did come up short in both tries. Nest, on the other hand, looks a more prepared filly to want to pass targets and not fall in line to a pecking order. Solid runner to include on trifecta tickets.
#4 Rich Strike
Upset Derby winner saw a historically favorable set-up where the fastest 2F split in Derby history was set along with the 4th fastest 4F split. The result was a 17th to 1st winner with the 52nd fastest Final time in Derby history. This Belmont field is loaded with other late speed and as a fan favorite, this one figures to take too much money to be backed. I'll be looking to leave out of the money.
#5 Creative Minister
One of the lighter raced options here looks to have some upside stretching out with career dirt spreads progressing +5 to -7 (REV) to -10 in the Preakness. The only runner here coming off consecutive 80+ Finals.
#6 Mo Donegal
Saw some slight regression in the Derby at 69/79h when looking to break through a 70/81h DTOP but is now 60 days removed from that DTOP and eligible to be considered recovered. Ran down the eventual Preakness winner late in the Wood Memorial despite that rival enjoying a clear lead, something tough to do in dirt racing. Respect.
#7 Golden Glider
Has been very consistent running Finals in the lower 70s but fails to show any spread progression that would indicate this extra distance would prompt a huge breakthrough performance.
#8 Barber Road
Ran a better 6F Figure than 4F Figure for first time in career in Derby and we've seen this one have the capability to re-gain momentum and run on when seeing trouble. Should be going late and offers nice value to catch the bottom of exotics.
Horizontal Wagers
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Must Use
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Fringe Adds
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Deep Toss
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651
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3
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82
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Vertical Wagers
$1 Trifecta Box 3568 ($24)
$0.50 Superfecta 1 w 56 w 23568 w 23568 ($12)
$1 Superfecta 56 w 3568 w 23568 w 23568 ($36)