2022 Kentucky Derby (Posts 11-15)

Posts 1-5 | Posts 6-10 | Posts 11-15 | Posts 16-22 | Quick Rank Chart | Energy Distribution Chart

#11 Pioneer Of Medina 30/1

Has been forwardly-placed in all dirt tries and did well to boost his late energy with increasing negative dirt spreads with more distance when tackling graded stakes competition. Has lacked the final punch to hold off that class so far, but they'll experiment with removing blinkers here which can lead to a more relaxed first half and possibly translate to more final punch that's been missing. Questionable to work well enough to compete for top spot but could be usable in deep exotics if left as a 30/1+ shot.

#12 Taiba 12/1

Most lightly-raced Kentucky Derby entrant I can recall comes in with some buzz. The Santa Anita Derby performance looked like a "robotic" effort as I absolutely loved his action down the lane looking like Duracell's new spokesperson with a stride that appears it never runs out. Here's the thing though. He stalked quick-early runners in a short field and it appeared his strength is gearing up faster and faster as the straights go and maybe taking to turns quite as much. There's nothing comparable on his resume to the bumper race of the Derby he'll see here and unknown how he'll take to moisture on the track as well. Tough to gauge his likely position in the field turning for home when he starts to do his best work and may end up with too much to do without a clean trip. He's the type of horse you have to take a stand and either key on him or toss completely. Uncommittingly sprinkling him all over the place in your tickets is too passive and expensive for this "boom or bust" type runner that has talent but question marks in this particular spot. I suspect he'll continue to gain traction amongst bettors and go off single digits so I won't be using him, but wouldn't scoff at anyone that does. Just like his sire Gun Runner, I think he'll be a show of greatness in the long run but this spot could be a hiccup on the way there.

#13 Simplification 20/1

Has yet to match his 75/74 running line from January in 3 tries and appears to be at his limit for potential currently. Fountain Of Youth winner when settling into his slowest 4F Figure in a route then bursting looks like a tactic that would disadvantage him against today's mega-field.

#14 Barber Road 30/1

Visually pleasing to see a runner handle being squeezed and bumped several times then accelerate well when finally clear. Group herd dynamics look solid as he's muscled through traffic in several spots in career. He'll have to show he can continue to move forward here after a big uptick in the running line though. Without the juvenile sprints, last out's spin would have triggered a DTOP pattern after a big move from 62h/70 to 74h/74. Rates a shot to get up in the deep exotics but I question whether I'll get the right price to use him. The public loves horses that appeared to take trouble in last and he may be a more popular longshot than I want him to be.

#15 White Abarrio 10/1

He's a perfect 4 for 4 in Florida ranging up to take the leader spot at the top of the stretch and holding on each time. He now moves to a much longer stretch to the track he has his only loss at. This year's Florida Derby came back a bit slower than normal so he'll need to be ready to roll off a SOFT pattern into this distance test. His developing dirt spreads through the resume of -10 to a 0 aren't ideal for a stretch-out runner whose 15 post may lend a tough go getting favorable early position.

Posts 1-5 | Posts 6-10 | Posts 11-15 | Posts 16-22 | Quick Rank Chart | Energy Distribution Chart


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