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The Race Analyzer (10/19/15)

The Race Analyzer – A Game Changer for Horse Racing Fans and Bettors

The Breeders' Cup, the biggest two days in horse racing are nearly upon us and I wanted to tell you about a series of never seen before, cutting edge technologies that we have recently launched here at Predicteform.
Predicteform.com is owned and run by the same team that is responsible for the leading sports analytics and simulation company called PredictionMachine.com. Over the course of the past six years, our group has developed some incredible technologies for sports, none more important than the Play Analyzer.

As you know, betting on sports is against fixed lines (unlike pari-mutuel wagering where the line doesn't fix until the race starts). At the time of bet, you are able to lock in the line at that given time. And whether you are selecting games on your own or using PredictionMachine.com, understanding line movement and how to take advantage of it is the most vital component to winning on sports.

The development of the Play Analyzer was a true game changer for PredictionMachine subscribers. Essentially, this technology empowered the user to re-simulate any game on the card using their current line.

Here's an example of how it works from Week 6 in College Football:

The most impactful move of the weekend for our picks occurred in the Louisiana Tech @ UTSA game as the total opened at 57 on Wednesday. By kickoff on Saturday the total line moved down to 54. Using the Play Analyzer to re-simulate the game, the “over pick” moved from 61% confidence to 66%. The final score was 34-31, easily covering the over and rewarding players with another "2X double play green pick" winner against the closing line.

User feedback has been so strong for the Play Analyzer that CEO Paul Bessire along with his development team set out to bring this power to the horse racing world via Predicteform.com.

With that, I present to you the recently launched technology called the Race Analyzer. Driven from the Play Analyzer technology, the Race Analyzer empowers the user to adjust the odds in real-time and re-rank horses by value given those odds.

Historically, a pundit, handicapper or speed figure producer provides picks before a race. The pick is based on who they believe will win that race, ostensibly without taking value or betting lines into account. But how could they? Odds are not available two weeks before the race and the ultimate goal for such pundits is to find winners, not value.

Let's use the Breeders' Cup Classic to demonstrate how the Play Analyzer works. First, let's set the field. After reviewing the Breeders' Cup website that lists the challengers for each race, we confirmed the Classic field of eleven starters.

Next, we went to the Breeders' Cup Classic Pace Figures which are FREE here. Using the UK fixed odds sites and the Wynn Las Vegas Future book odds, I built an odds table with the projected post time odds for all starters. Note that this model is using the total combined chance to win at 125% which accounts for the approximate takeout.

Horse Odds % Chance
American Pharoah 1 4/5 0.36
Beholder 3 0.25
Effinex 30 0.02
Frosted 14 0.07
Gleneagles 12 0.08
Hard Aces 35 0.03
Honor Code 6 0.14
Hoppertunity 25 0.04
Keen Ice 11 0.08
Smooth Roller 15 0.06
Tonalist 7 0.13
Total Margin 1.25

Finally, we click Analyze Race on the Pace Figure page and come to the Race Analyzer page for the Breeders' Cup Classic. This is where we input the above odds and RE-EVALUATE the race and view the Play Analyzer Value Picks for the Breeders' Cup Classic.

One final note, make sure you re-evaluate the race one more time during the 60 minutes in between post to get the final Value Play order.


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Predicteform.com Pace Figures, Form Cycle Patterns and Value Play picks will tell you if a horse is likely to improve or regress in its next start. Easily accessible from any computer, tablet or mobile device, Predicteform.com services horse players of all types. Access to printing PDF's is also available.

How do I get started?
Visit the Learn tab on the navigation bar where you'll find the Predicteform.com Legend and Pattern Guide. These two tools combined will give you the knowledge you need to use Predicteform.com:

The Legend helps to explain how best to read the Pace Figures. It clearly defines what every line, symbol and figure means.

The Pattern Guide highlights Form Cycle Patterns, a series of 12 symbols/abbreviations, each with its own definition. These patterns are the easiest and most effective way to evaluate what we can expect from a horse's future performance and expected form cycle.

Value Play Picks use the automated technology and process to evaluate every track and race as well as the Predicteform.com team's analytical expertise, we can now rank every horse by its likelihood of winning the race and value (initially relative to morning line odds).
Value Play picks are included as part of all subscriptions and you can view now on the Free Race of the Day.

Blinker's Off - We have also published founder Cary Fotias' unabridged book on Form Cycle Analysis, available by chapter free to all who register.

Free Race of the Day – Every day, we will make available the Pace Figures and Value Play Picks for at least one race. Pace Figures are what subscribers, both in the Value Play Picks and the comprehensive "advanced" view, can see for every horse of every race at every track. Check out today's free race here.

Free Track of the Weekend - Each weekend (Fri. - Sun.), Predicteform will offer access to the Value Play Picks, Pace Figures and Form Cycle Patterns. Access to this data will provide new users an ability to follow along and learn how read, analyze and use the Predicteform technology.

Where can I see sample races?
Click here to read examples of the Pace Figures and Form Cycle Pattern Analysis for the 2016 Preakness Stakes. Many more race examples and other content has been made available within the Blog section of the site.

Feedback is incredibly important to the Predicteform.com team as we attempt to keep the spirit of Equiform.com founder, Cary Fotias' handicapping vision alive while also providing you with the best possible product. We encourage you to register/log in and send us comments, thoughts and questions about the site through Customer Support.

Let us know what you like and what you want to see more of. We are big believers in collaboration and hope you are as excited as we are about Predicteform.com.