Saturday, 08/27/22
Race 7 – Turf – 5F
#1 Tom's Beauty – Debuted nicely to a 76/72h, compressed enough for a short turf sprint and returns a year older working very well.
#4 Lexington Humor – Been conditioning well by sustaining speed in main track try and working fast. Can expand on previous turf line of 80h/75h here.
#7 Del Mar Drama – Like the consistency of even energy distribution even though sprinting as the entire resume features turf spreads around -3. Top placing might be just outside ability but for double-digit odds, can surprise enough times to justify a bet.
#8 Woodbine Way – Comes off a good-looking local spin of 79/76 after a few forward-spent tries across town. Would prefer the odds float up a bit here to back as runner doesn't have a good track record of stringing good races together consecutively. On the flipside, she has been asked to put on a lot of miles in short career so far running through different barns, surfaces, and circuits while been professional enough to be a winner at three different tracks.
#10 Canam Gal – The 82h/75 running line leaves her a chance to clear the field and try to steal the race if she can get brave and hold them off at big odds. Seems a tough task but possible.
#11 Baby Steps – Same comments as previous runner with this one an 82/74h off a PLOW. Two runners from the outside that likely need the same tactics and race flow to upset make it tough to even try backing either of them.
Must Use: 1-4
Consider: 7-8
Deep: 11-10
Race 8 – Dirt – 6F
#3 Kid Corleone – Threat to wire field with big 4F Figure advantage
#6 Apprehend – Moving the right way off a couple NPTs improving energy distribution and should be strong late if there's an opportunity to catch.
#1 Desmond Doss – Another one on the upswing off SOFT/NPT wins. The first two contenders mentioned cover a lot of Win % chances in this race so I'm hesitant to spend the money to include but worth a look if you prefer going deeper.
Muse Use: 3-6
Consider: 1
Race 9 – Dirt – 7F
#8 Speaker's Corner – Speedster invades west off an NPT. Both rivals that beat him last couple starts would be 1/5 in today's field. Should prove tough to beat but we'll consider a few others in case he's jet-lagged.
#4 American Theorem – Horse for the course here off a well-compressed 78h/78 victory but can also sustain faster paces as well prefaced by the prior win at a more forward 84h/76.
#2 Principe Carlo – Longshot has a chance to rebound here from a 79h/72h after a 2-back 87/76 NPT. Big conditioning moves like that can be too much to handle for some horses so they make great bet-backs if they regress off that otherwise positive pattern. In tough today but can add value to exotics.
#9 Defunded – He's tough to trust but the talent is there. With the right set-up can take over late and should offer nice odds as backers jump ship.
Must Use: 8-4
Consider: 2-9
Race 10 – Turf – 8.5F
#4 Border Town – Been running through the barns lately but now makes perhaps strongest switch in terms of connections while coming off a lifetime Top. Must include.
#5 Cono – Certainly has the back figures to be considered top chance here but those came a year ago and the debut was pretty forward at 76h/76h when fading 2nd to 8th. Looking for a more relaxed try here second off the break. Like to rely on big back figures for better prices. If he's the favorite, not sure I want to yield that on a runner with current form questionable.
#7 Table For Ten – stringing together turf races for first time in a year. Was a competitive 70h/76h last out with previous turf race last year a TDL indicating future turf success. Today's hugely positive rider switch gives him upset chances.
#9 Sword Zorro – Big improvement off a 2-back TDL often points to another step forward. Must use off the 64h/75 and should be going well late.
Must Use: 4-9
Consider: 7