2021 Kentucky Derby (Posts 1-10)

#1 Known Agenda 6/1

Looks to be one ready to peak on the right weekend. Recent performances have seen the 4F Figures slowly climb but the Final Figures climb even more along with. This increasing “sustainable pace” coupled with better overall performance are monster conditioning moves. Would look to see this one spring off a last out 67/77 with a peak effort. Looks like he'll go off an overlay with many fearing the dreaded inside post.

#2 Like The King 50/1

A nice REV-NPT combo prompted a last out victory with career best Final Figure of 75 so they'll try him here. Runner's recent work has come on the Tapeta surface which is questionable to translate to Churchill's main track. His limited experience on dirt was forward in energy spent with weak figures attached.

#3 Brooklyn Strong 50/1

His easily best performance of 73/76 was aided when gliding over a sloppy track and a combo of DTOPs led to regression of 60/67 coming into this race. Had the perfect set-up but couldn't capitalize so condition is a big question coming into today.

#4 Keepmeinmind 50/1

Had something going juvenile season when working the 75/69 debut with a +7 dirt spread and turning it into a 70/79 flipping his energy distribution into a -9 dirt spread. After 4 months off, has failed to keep building on that foundation so far as a sophomore putting up a couple moderate performances of 67/73.

#5 Sainthood 50/1

Unraced as a 2-year old, his only main track route try came in at 63/71.

#6 O Besos 20/1

Has been very compressed from debut and worked himself to a -10 dirt spread in routes but only a 72 Final. He'll be begging for a pace breakdown he likely won't get today. Destined to be a closer in shorter distance races where there's a better chance for hot paces.

#7 Mandaloun 15/1

Appeared to figure things out when adding blinkers and popping a 68/75 but fell flat next out to 67/67. Seems like a runner that likes to make things difficult and can't see him turning it around in this large, stressful field.

#8 Medina Spirit 15/1

Faded at odds-on last out to a forward 77/73 having confidence shaken by a breakout Rock Your World that day. Has been a tough grinder all season with a shot for redemption here. We should see more moderate 4F's in this Derby allowing him room to bring the Final back up.

#9 Hot Rod Charlie 8/1

Nearly got to today's favorite when working up to a 79/80 DTOP for the BC Juvenile. Runner continues to look like he enjoys running at targets. Last out's 69/73 looks light, but it was the first time runner found himself on the lead so there wasn't much reason to let it out. Should be ready to give all.

#10 Midnight Bourbon 20/1

Dirt spreads have shrunk from -7 to -3 indicating more early speed building. Unfortunately, this is only a good thing when Final Figures remain constant but his have dropped with the 4F. Runner may not be in top condition for this ultra-stressful type of race.

Posts 11-20 | Guest Picks

-Dustin Korth @predicteform


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