Kentucky Derby Analysis (05/06/16)

In-depth analysis of the 2016 Kentucky Derby including Pace Figures and Form Cycle Pattern of each starter. Please refer to the Legend or Pattern Guide for back-up definitions and patterns.

Hope springs eternal for the owners of the twenty three year-old thoroughbreds that go postward in the 142nd Kentucky Derby. Carded as the twelfth race from legendary Churchill Downs at 5:50 ET on Saturday, NBC will cover the race with more than 50 camera angles including an 80 foot high camera secured to the top of the infield video board. A win in the Derby secures the connection's name in horse racing folklore and sets their horse towards a path of stallion status.

The 2015 Kentucky Derby winner, American Pharoah went on to become horse racing's thirteenth Triple Crown winner, and syndicated as a stallion for over $60mm. California Chrome, winner of the 2014 Derby, goes to stud this year where his expected stallion syndication rights are rumored at $10mm.

View the Predicteform Final Pace Figures for American Pharoah and California Chrome as well as the entire 2015 and 2014 Derby fields respectively.

Of the 20 starters in the Derby, 12 have the Too Slow designation. This designation does not mean one of these 12 runners can't win, it does mean however that the Predicteform projection is for a “Too Slow” horse to be at least six lengths off the winner. With that, we'll concentrate on the top four Value Play Picks, while also drawing a line through Lani, the lone international starter.

Here is our analysis on the betting favorite, Nyquist. For free access to the rest of our Kentucky Derby Analysis, please register for free!

Nyquist (3/1)

The lone undefeated colt in the field, Nyquist is one of three sons by first crop stallion Uncle Mo. Nyquist is looking to become only the second horse to win the Breeders' Cup Two-Year Old Championship and the Kentucky Derby since 1984 (only Street Sense accomplished this feat in 2006). He owns the highest Final Pace Figure in the field (80.8) as well as the second fastest final figure last race (77.5) and second fastest lifetime final figure average. Termed “brilliance,” Nyquist has shown an ability to win by open lengths, a sign of a potential superstar.

For free access to the rest of our Kentucky Derby Analysis, please register at for free!


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Welcome to Predicteform Pace Figures, Form Cycle Patterns and Value Play picks will tell you if a horse is likely to improve or regress in its next start. Easily accessible from any computer, tablet or mobile device, services horse players of all types. Access to printing PDF's is also available.

How do I get started?
Visit the Learn tab on the navigation bar where you'll find the Legend and Pattern Guide. These two tools combined will give you the knowledge you need to use

The Legend helps to explain how best to read the Pace Figures. It clearly defines what every line, symbol and figure means.

The Pattern Guide highlights Form Cycle Patterns, a series of 12 symbols/abbreviations, each with its own definition. These patterns are the easiest and most effective way to evaluate what we can expect from a horse's future performance and expected form cycle.

Value Play Picks use the automated technology and process to evaluate every track and race as well as the team's analytical expertise, we can now rank every horse by its likelihood of winning the race and value (initially relative to morning line odds).
Value Play picks are included as part of all subscriptions and you can view now on the Free Race of the Day.

Blinker's Off - We have also published founder Cary Fotias' unabridged book on Form Cycle Analysis, available by chapter free to all who register.

Free Race of the Day – Every day, we will make available the Pace Figures and Value Play Picks for at least one race. Pace Figures are what subscribers, both in the Value Play Picks and the comprehensive "advanced" view, can see for every horse of every race at every track. Check out today's free race here.

Free Track of the Weekend - Each weekend (Fri. - Sun.), Predicteform will offer access to the Value Play Picks, Pace Figures and Form Cycle Patterns. Access to this data will provide new users an ability to follow along and learn how read, analyze and use the Predicteform technology.

Where can I see sample races?
Click here to read examples of the Pace Figures and Form Cycle Pattern Analysis for the 2016 Preakness Stakes. Many more race examples and other content has been made available within the Blog section of the site.

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