$400k Grade III Lexington Stakes
Race 9, Dirt, 8.5 Furlongs
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#1 Midnight Chrome 20/1
REV-TDL combo generally considered form more conducive to turf but the improved late speed can work here too if getting a good set-up and trip.
#2 In Due Time 3/1
Good progression for this distance going +4 to +2 to -5 (4F minus Final) with the REV in last.
#3 We All See It 15/1
Pretty consistent tab maintaining a 70 Final four straight before taking a race completely off then popping the big 71/75. This equates to an improvement of about 10.5 lengths at this distance which is a pretty big jump to be expected to improve upon again. Chance he could at least sustain it though and run back here for the odds.
#4 Ethereal Road 10/1
Been a bit of a closer with a REV on route debut and a very deep 54/69h on the resume. Looked to develop some more 4F over last few to keep up with developing rivals. 65h/71h didn't cut it last weekend but it's on the right track. Would like more if this wasn't a forced last chance race.
#5 Howling Time 15/1
Promising juvenile season plenty deep routing on a 63/75 REV stakes win. Came off winter break with three bullet works to just not show up for sophomore debut at all. Big question mark.
#6 Skate To Heaven 30/1
Looking stronger as of late with much improved 4F/Final from the first two routes. Tough spot to face winners for the first time here needing to take another step forward. No foundation or incremental progression to suggest he can connect two consecutive big jumps forward. Does own fastest Average 4F and Last 4F so perhaps they can fire out and try to steal?
#7 Major General 4/1
Undefeated as a juvenile showing natural 4F ability on debut to an 81/73 and handling a route second out to a 69/72h SOFT pattern. Long winter then debuted in '22 with a stumbled start and quick bow out. Certainly talent there but 4/1 seems short for a runner that's a question mark at this point. Blinkers on and holds the fastest 4F Figure this field has ever set so perhaps looking to press the issue up front today. Odds float up and you should probably be using. Gets bet down and you can start thinking about looking elsewhere. Not the type of runner you just say yes or no to, it's an odds game.
#8 Strava 20/1
Been a compressed type from the start off a respectable 71h/74 in first route try. Not much of an early starter and lightly-raced runners often like to repeat gate problems, not fix them. Experiments with blinkers today. Don't mind giving him a shot to grind into the exotics at over 20/1.
#9 Tawny Port 5/2
Needs qualifying points to get into the Derby starting gate so this is a forced spot. Having no choice but to run here or ditch the Derby dream while having to break through a DTOP and move from synthetic to the more stressful early dirt while being the morning line favorite makes this an automatic fade for me. No value at all in my mind.
#10 Dash Attack 10/1
Nice career opening to connect the COMP debut to an NPT while handling routing right away but has lacked moves forward since the promising start. Big sacrifice on 4F Figure in last didn't produce any more late run. Last ditch effort to get Derby points here.
#11 Call Me Midnight 6/1
Deep closer left himself way too much to do when prompting just a 54 4F Figure in last. Field top to bottom isn't the earliest so this one may get a chance to sit closer to the pack today but that also makes it less likely for runners to back up in stretch for him. He'll have to put his head down and go get this one himself, something fundamentally really tough to do on dirt.