Gulfstream Park, Race 10
7 Furlongs, Dirt
#1 Lasting Legacy 15/1
Runner has been building more sustainable early energy spent this year with a June dirt spread (4F minus Final) of -5 and a last out spread of +5 in the Breeders' Cup Sprint from a tough 15 post. We often end up in spots where we talk about angles where runners start distributing their energy more evenly by progressing their spreads the opposite way of this one, but to draw the rail and ship to Gulfstream, this “faster earlier” progression could work out in this one's favor for this instance.
#2 Cool Arrow 12/1
Bit of a “horse for the course” notching 3 straight victories in consistent fashion. He's done very well at compressing his energy into tight spreads as of late which makes this stretchout favorable but in a more loaded field than he's used to, there seems to be too many other rivals ready to pop a big one while this one we know will just be predictably good but maybe not great.
#3 Wind Of Change 30/1
Wants to take advantage of busting out a positive dirt spread but tough going against this group. No indication that he's developed into using speed well like others here, but rather that being his only weapon from the start. Many can match the 4F Figure and I can't see him sticking around late. The 87/81 DTOP performance came taking advantage of a bullring against weaker.
#7 Diamond Oops 3/1
The reigning champion put up an impressive 82/79 in this event last year and comes in with form close to those numbers to work off of.
#8 Sleepy Eyes Todd 5/1
Comes out of cutback where he posted a late-running -4 dirt spread. While there's plenty of speed signed on today, that part of the field is equipped to handle the trip and doesn't necessarily lead me to believe the race will breakdown. There are a lot of big 4F Figure runners that still remain mildly compressed so when I have a runner like this one looking to come on from out of position, I would like to be offered better value than what is proposed here.
#9 Firenze Fire 5/2
If given a pass for the sloppy track 3 back, we would have 3 consecutive races where this one incrementally increased both his 4F Figure and Final Figure so being instilled as the morning line favorite would appear deserving. The 79/78 last out is right there for what it will take to win this race.
#11 Zenden 30/1
He peeled off double NPTs from a long layoff and returns in 3 weeks while stoutly owning the Top Last 4F Figure by almost 9 points. It's a golden spot a large majority of runners move forward from. Many in this field beat his past Final Figures squarely but the big improvement we're asking for comes with a big potential payout that seems to mesh well given the strong Form Cycle Pattern. The NPTs were earned while trying blinkers for the first time for new connections. Today's switch back to “Blinkers Off” (check out our free eBook) could provide a more relaxing run to really accentuate the positive conditioning we've seen as of late. If you don't buy the Value Plays algorithm listing this one as “Top Contender,” I would at least give him the “Top Exotics Value” nod.
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