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G2 Risen Star Stakes (02/18/23)

Fair Grounds | Race 13 | Dirt | 9 Furlongs | Post Time 7:14 ET

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#1 Quiet As Midnight

Nicely compressed sprint campaign trending up in spread at -3 COMP to +3 to +1. It's a positive trajectory for the stretchout but also came at velocities much slower than the rest here so we're asking for him to like this new spot a huge amount to figure against these.

#2 Single Ruler

Enters off best 4F/Final running line without triggering the DTOP and has a COMP/REV foundation sprinting so looks to be entering in top condition. The route win was a couple points slower than all others in here as he faces winners for first time so even though feeling good, he's up against a tough spot ability-wise. Could be worked into some tickets as a live longshot.

#3 Shaq Diesel

Had a streak of DTOPs going which put some nice conditioning into him before the unavoidable regression came. Was able to recover quickly and post a win but now turns back around to face tougher. Might be a bit hard-used at this point to run best.

#4 Determinedly

Got some juvenile schooling on turf which I like as it can teach a horse tactics in traffic and passing rivals. Seamless switch back to main track breaking maiden then stretching out to a tough 72.1 / 71.2 two back before taking advantage of a softer pace to wire field in last at 67.7 / 72.2. Drew a good post here and should be up there in first flight.

#5 Harlocap

Invading from the west coast, he's developed his energy distribution dramatically going from quick NEG early speed to +2 to -5 in last. He's handed off here from Baffert to Asmussen but the fast uphill trajectory could still be present off a good-looking 6F workout before the ship.

#6 Angel Of Empire

Has put some hard conditioning into himself as of late off the DTOP/NPT combo, however his work has been spaced out so fatigue shouldn't be an issue. It's a good combo for a runner that could be about to peak. Cox barn has been winning everything at this track so we'll see how much money he takes.

#7 Sun Thunder

Some good incremental progress here popping Form Cycle Patterns along the way with REV/NPT/NPT coming in. Hasn't seen a fast track since debut where he was slow early but made up a lot of ground on rivals late. If he indeed holds that 15/1 range, it would be enticing.

#8 Tapit's Conquest

Good dirt spread progression for distance going +3 COMP to -2 REV to a stretch-heavy -8 in last where he just missed to a pacesetter up on soft fractions. Step up in competition could be a challenge as he isn't real well-behaved but there's obvious talent here. Perhaps his herd dynamics will kick in against this big field and competition brings out the best in him. Win contender and happy if 6/1.

#9 Curly Jack

Well battled-tested here with many graded stakes tries. Last out's 59.4 / 72.5 REV a product of that race's flow more than a form reversal so expect a more forward-spent running line today as he's typically shown. Should be prominent throughout but vulnerable come stretch time.

#10 Two Phil's

Speedy type can vie for lead here or clear to 2-3 path into first turn off the 73.8 / 71.9. Many in here have sustained 70+ 4F into 70+ Final so it's not a standout look but if indeed 8/1 or better, certainly rates a look.

#11 Silver Heist

Gets the call up the ladder after a 66.1 / 71.7 on this oval. Rates just a notch below the best of this group so double-digits would be plenty fair for a runner with potential making only 3rd career start and sporting a work tab riddled with bullets.

#12 Crupi

Saw a 3-point Final Figure uptick after turning 3 which was enough for Pletcher to send him down even though he retains his maiden tag. NYRA invader draws a tough post and has some obstacles but wouldn't be the most surprising upset off upward form.

#13 Victory Formation

Undefeated favorite has had his way with rivals so far never worse than 2nd at any point in racing. It hasn't just been given to him with soft spots though as he ranks 1st in Ave & Last Final Figure and 3rd in Ave & Last 4F Figure so the respect as morning line favorite is deserved. I'm not often a fan of “outposting” horses but if I were going to throw it around, I'd do it trying to beat a favorite that has never dealt with traffic in front of him and has a lot of work to do early if he's going to clear everyone and avoid that again.

#14 Private Creed

Turfer has won a bunch of races sprinting on grass and now wants a taste of the main track. It's a dramatic cross-over and fundamentally turf sprint figures aren't going to translate to telling you much about dirt routing potential. What we do know is the horse is comfortable with traffic and passing rivals and the connections Triple Crown-nominated him telling us they expect this type of trip is within his ability.

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