Predicteform Predicteform

G3 Lecomte Stakes (01/22/22)

Fair Grounds, Race 14

8.5 Furlongs – Dirt

The Road to the Kentucky Derby starts to take off this weekend with early Derby Qualifying Points up for grabs in the nightcap of a huge 14-race card Fair Grounds has put together for Saturday, 1/22. Interesting connection between today's co-favorites as #3 Pappacap (8/5 ML) was sired by 2017 Horse of the Year, Gun Runner. Meanwhile, #5 Epicenter (9/5 ML) comes in for the same trainer as Gun Runner and off a win in the Gun Runner Stakes.

#1 Surfer Dude 15/1

Durable look to make this sophomore debut career race #7 with no breaks in this initial campaign all while dealing with the stress of being an early speed horse. Finally broke his maiden when prompting a DTOP off an NPT and took an excusable regression in Figures next out as no match to one of today's co-favorites. Moving to a graded stakes Derby hopeful field could be tough for him from the start as his 4F Figures don't lend him an advantage that he may need.

#2 Unified Report 15/1

Enters undefeated and now gets an extra turn with the big stretch out in distance. Disregard the NEG pattern on debut victory as he barely missed triggering a COMP instead and may have if he hadn't cleared for the win. The 4F Figures are solid letting him stalk in contention and the compression of small dirt spreads (4F minus Final) give him good staying power to get by late. The pedigree isn't anything special to be routing over sprinting here but the Figures and spreads are positive for the move and may lend some value to show up today if the odds remain attractive.

#3 Pappacap 8/5

West coast invader was a quick 2 for 2 and took on three Grade I tries as a juvenile. Improved both 4F with Final Figures through sprinting showing strong progression. The route tries featured more forwardly-placed 4F Figures as he dealt with tougher pace scenarios than today's field yet sustained on for comparable Final Figures. Top contender worthy of respect but wonder if his extensive class experience will drive him down to odds-on. Should run a predictable race.

#4 Trafalgar 5/1

Just missed triggering COMP on debut when settling for second with the pacesetter getting too far away. More distance allowed him the time needed to get past his next rivals last two races, although those trips have been made by other rivals today and he needs to show us more on both 4F and Final today. Needs to improve and get a good trip so I'm more inclined to consider if we get that number over 10/1 first.

#5 Epicenter 9/5

79/71 NEG debut was quickly corrected with more distance prompting a precocious 79h/75h DTOP in a 1-turn route then dialing down to a SOFT pattern at two turns for a 74/74 on this track. Proven at the trip and track with a superior running line to the others' that have been in same spot. Lone concern is the question of how he might handle things if he experiences pressured competition today after a couple in-hand trips.

#6 Cyberknife 6/1

Geared up on debut popping an 86/74h winner. He settled into a more compressed 73h/73h and 69h/72 SOFT on 2-turn debut. Couldn't quite close the deal in that second start and barely made it in last. They'll try blinkers to put some speed back in here as that seems to be his best chance. Not sure he's game enough to take this field with a stalking trip and he's facing plenty of other good speed if they push early. Seems like an underlay.

#7 Blue Kentucky 20/1

Been forward all career including a try at a mile with a very forward 81/68h. Tough to single him out as the one to benefit from going early when there's several others that might need to try the same to steal it.

#8 Call Me Midnight 20/1

After being geared up sprinting, settled a bit and closed the juvenile season with three routes putting together a REV Pattern and a deep -9 dirt spread. With the right set-up could surprise 1 out of 20 tries but needs that help and is not going to just take this race himself.

#9 Presidential 20/1

This stablemate to co-favorite #5 Epicenter enters with the highest auction price of today's field. Could be any horse here as the most rested of the field not seen since starting career back in August. Was a COMP on debut before an easy Reversal (REV) winner next out. Workouts started super slow and inched faster over last couple months without a break. Interesting one but trainer is 0 for 9 in graded stakes with these owners while he's already got a couple runners into the Derby gate for #5 Epicenter's owners.

Follow me on Twitter @predicteform

Comments

Search Blogs

Archive

Welcome to Predicteform

Predicteform.com Pace Figures, Form Cycle Patterns and Value Play picks will tell you if a horse is likely to improve or regress in its next start. Easily accessible from any computer, tablet or mobile device, Predicteform.com services horse players of all types. Access to printing PDF's is also available.

How do I get started?
Visit the Learn tab on the navigation bar where you'll find the Predicteform.com Legend and Pattern Guide. These two tools combined will give you the knowledge you need to use Predicteform.com:

The Legend helps to explain how best to read the Pace Figures. It clearly defines what every line, symbol and figure means.

The Pattern Guide highlights Form Cycle Patterns, a series of 12 symbols/abbreviations, each with its own definition. These patterns are the easiest and most effective way to evaluate what we can expect from a horse's future performance and expected form cycle.

Value Play Picks use the automated technology and process to evaluate every track and race as well as the Predicteform.com team's analytical expertise, we can now rank every horse by its likelihood of winning the race and value (initially relative to morning line odds).
Value Play picks are included as part of all subscriptions and you can view now on the Free Race of the Day.

Blinker's Off - We have also published founder Cary Fotias' unabridged book on Form Cycle Analysis, available by chapter free to all who register.

Free Race of the Day – Every day, we will make available the Pace Figures and Value Play Picks for at least one race. Pace Figures are what subscribers, both in the Value Play Picks and the comprehensive "advanced" view, can see for every horse of every race at every track. Check out today's free race here.

Free Track of the Weekend - Each weekend (Fri. - Sun.), Predicteform will offer access to the Value Play Picks, Pace Figures and Form Cycle Patterns. Access to this data will provide new users an ability to follow along and learn how read, analyze and use the Predicteform technology.

Where can I see sample races?
Click here to read examples of the Pace Figures and Form Cycle Pattern Analysis for the 2016 Preakness Stakes. Many more race examples and other content has been made available within the Blog section of the site.

Feedback is incredibly important to the Predicteform.com team as we attempt to keep the spirit of Equiform.com founder, Cary Fotias' handicapping vision alive while also providing you with the best possible product. We encourage you to register/log in and send us comments, thoughts and questions about the site through Customer Support.

Let us know what you like and what you want to see more of. We are big believers in collaboration and hope you are as excited as we are about Predicteform.com.