G1 Santa Anita Derby (04/03/21)

Santa Anita, Race 8

9 Furlongs, Dirt

#2 Dream Shake 7/2

That's a solid debut triggering the COMP but didn't move forward routing as much as expected. Needs to take a step forward off that 69/71. I would like a little better odds for a runner that needs to show an improvement he had every right to show last out but didn't.

#5 Back Ring Luck 20/1

He's strung together DTOP-REV-DTOP over his last 3 starts and being lightly-raced, has a right to keep setting a new ceiling. However, he's stepping up to a field where his 72 4F Figure likely holds no advantage for him today.

#7 Medina Spirit 5/2

Runner has looked great in all starts but the Figures don't tower over this field where I'm okay yielding short odds. I think this one will be well bet and worth trying to beat value-wise.

#8 Law Professor 10/1

Didn't show much on debut but blinkers did the trick 2nd out where he flashed the field's best Last 4F Figure on the way to a 75/73 DTOP victory. With a shot to be prominently-placed early and the 2nd time blinkers angle working, this one holds solid value to back.

#9 The Great One 8/1

Triggered the REV to NPT combo when moving to dirt then bounced off that big 80/75 NPT. The New Pace Top is a positive conditioning move that not all runners will handle. While 70% of NPT runners move forward next out, the 30% of NPT runners that move backward are usually ready to spring back forward 2nd off the NPT. Has lots of upside here.

#10 Defunded 8/1

While the debut was a bit slow, he did move off that COMP to show true talent 2nd out. The 75/73 while sprinting fits well to this group and the tight +2 spread points to success for a runner stretching out in distance.

-Dustin Korth @predicteform


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