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2018 International Flair


Friday:

Juvenile Fillies Turf

Happily – 3 wins from 4 starts in Graded races this season. Untried on quick ground. Form difficult to quantify; generally raced against stablemates & thus vulnerable against US-based improvers?
September – Closely tied to Happily on form – btn 3 ¾ lengths on testing ground by aforementioned in September. Better ground could help spark reversal in placings?
Juliet Capulet – 1st try at Grade 1 level. Form of last win does not look strong enough to make impression here; needs to improve. Untried at 1m. Dettori booking +


Breeders' Cup Juvenile Turf

Masar – 2 wins from 4 turf starts. Conditions favourable. Trainer/jockey know how to win abroad.
Mendelssohn – US pedigree (out of Scat Daddy). Unlucky Group 1 2nd last time out (winner kicked early). Won over 1m on similar ground 3 starts ago. Looks tailor made for this.
James Garfield – Young up & coming trainer saddles. Top jockey booking. Trip concerns.
Beckford – Beaten favourite last 3 starts over shorter, shaping as if wants further. Joel Rosario booking +. Pedigree suggests trip will not suit, though trainer extremely shrewd & may know otherwise. Place claims at a bigger price?


Saturday:

Breeders' Cup Turf Sprint

Marsha – Beat Lady Aurelia (+110 favourite) in August @ York, England. Beaten 4L by one of best sprinters in Europe last time out. Very consistent – should be thereabouts.
Washington DC – Highly tried. 1 win at Group level from 19 attempts. Looks to be regressing now. Unlikely.
Cotai Glory – Beaten by +4000 shot at Woodbine latest. Campaigned at lower level 2017. Well held by Marsha on numerous starts.


Breeders' Cup Filly & Mare Turf

Rhododendron – Excellent Grade 1 performances 2017 (2nd to Enable in Epsom Oaks). Ground in favour. 3lb pull from majority of field. Stellar chance.
Queen's Trust – Best efforts on this surface. Last win November 2016 (5 starts 2017). 1m1f too sharp?
Wuheida – Improved as season has gone on. Close 4th to Rhododendron last month on bad ground. Looks overpriced.
Nezwaah – Well held Woodbine latest – ground possible excuse though fancied favourite? No excuses with surface here.


Breeders' Cup Mile

Ribchester – Need to get tactics/pace right? (will likely lead – criticized for being played too early latest). Extremely consistent – should go close.
Roly Poly - Last 5 Grade 1 starts – 1,6,1,1,2. Rated 7lb lower than Ribchester but gets 2lb. Has beating of aforementioned on form-lines but double the price? Interesting.
Suedois – On hat-trick of wins (Keenland Grade 1 latest). Speed figures suggest should trouble favourites. +1200 value?


Breeders' Cup Turf

Highland Reel – Well beaten by best 2 horses in Europe last 2 starts. Easier task here, though price looks off-putting?
Ulysses – Beat above when last met July 2017 on softer surface; beat by above on quicker ground twice. Exacta play?
Decorated Knight – Held by above two in 3 starts earlier this year. Little to suggest will reverse form.
Seventh Heaven – Should relish surface (2 Graded wins on quick ground). Out of sorts last two starts. Lightly raced 2017 – could be more to come? Watch market…


Most likely winner – Mendelssohn
Place chance @ double figure price - Wuheida

When asked about Roly I think Roly Poly is the price it is because of the draw (12).

https://www.racinguk.com/news/the-breeders-cup-frankie-dettori-writes-off-chances-of-those-drawn-high-on-turf-track

Purely on speed figures alone World Approval comes out fastest (hence disputing favouritism) and will likely be up there with Heart to Heart & Midnight Storm whom should lead. RP has not run as fast a race as WA over the mile on firm ground to date. RP does get 6lb from WA, but may need to make up 3, 4 lengths purely on the basis of that draw! There is the obvious problem that it will use up too much gas trying to come across from 12. WA looks a good horse IMO – did it so easily last time out. I think I will take +300 if I can get it!

Thanks to our good friend Geoorge Jeffreys - a race follower of 7 years, he enjoys flat & jumps racing in England.
Value seeker.
Favourite horse – Frankel J



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