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Our First Breeders' Cup (10/16/14)

Our first Breeders' Cup (BC) is just a few weeks away and our team at Predicteform.com is ready to help subscribers take down the Cup! Here's what's on tap for the Breeders' Cup at Predicteform.

  • Breeders' Cup Free Preview – Each day leading up to the BC we will post Pace Figures and Past Performances for a potential starter. Click here to see today's Preview.
  • Breeders' Cup trends including top jockey's, trainers, owners, leading sires and dams.
  • Future book odds for the Distaff and Classic.
  • Breeders' Cup Live Webinar hosted by Brisnet's Ed DeRosa with Predicteform co-founder Dan Zucker, tenatively scheduled for Tuesday 10/28, 7-8:30 PM ET.
  • Breeders' Cup Pace Figures Package which includes three separate sets of Pace Figures for one price of $39.90
    • Breeders' Cup Contenders (10/16-10/22) – all potential runners for all 13 Breeders' Cup races over two days.
    • Breeders' Cup Pre-Entries (10/22–10/27) – all runners in 13 Breeders' Cup races in post position order
    • Santa Anita Park Full Cards (available on 10/28 for Fri. 10/31 and Sat. 11/1) – 10 races on Friday and 12 races on Saturday

If you are not already registered, you can do that here for free or subscribe to the Breeders' Cup Package.

How are things going as we enter our eighth month as Predicteform.com?

We are proud to be carrying on a life's work, which comes from the brilliant job founder Cary Fotias did in developing the algorithm and math behind Predicteform.com.

The foundation and math behind the Pace Figures and Form Cycle Patterns remains pristine and unchanged, though our team has been able to revolutionize the "figures" from a manual to a dynamic process. Through the course of this transition, we have been able to identify an opportunity for a potential upgrade.

There are over 8,000 par times that were originally created by Cary. These par times are used to create the expected final pace figures of every possible combination of track, distance, class and surface Originally, these par times were static, meaning they never varied nor changed. The par times were updated periodically though not consistently.

Currently and as it stands now, Predicteform is updating those same par times dynamically every night based on daily results.

Led by Paul Bessire, General Manager of our sister company PredictionMachine.com, he discerned that the threshold of the number of races needed as the foundation for the par times (by specific track/distance/surface and class), was not being reached in some cases. However, the good news is that because Predicteform is updating par times dynamically each night, Paul, through statistical modeling, was able to determine that 10 historical races fitting the exact class, track, distance and surface (over the past two years) will get us to a 95% confidence that the given par time is appropriate.

As you can imagine, there are a number of situations when a track doesn't run enough races to reach the minimum threshold (over the allotted two year time period) and that a horse's Pace Figures are based on a comparison to smaller sample size Par Times. For example, take a look at Alexis Tangier's Pace Figures below, a pre-entry in the Breeders' Cup Turf Sprint.


F w78.0 w72.4* 67.4 w73.0 58.2 66.5
4f 79.4 71.4 70.7 75.5 68.9 76.9
P NEG
6f 77.6 66.9 65.4 72.6
2f 74.8 80.6
T sax dmr dmr sax sax sax
S TURF TURF DIRT TURF DIRT DIRT
L 61/2 8 81/2 61/2 51/2 51/2
C Firm Firm Fast Firm Fast Fast
B/M
D 09/27/14 08/20/14 07/27/14 06/21/14 05/31/14 04/20/14


The asterisk adjacent to the 72.4 Final Pace Figure on 08/20/2014 means that at that distance of 8 furlongs on the Del Mar turf, at that class, there were not at least 10 races over the course of two years months to qualify as a par time with 95% confidence. You'll notice the asterisk on select races going back to August 16th of this year which is when the par time notations were implemented.

More than anything, this asterisk notation has been created to provide our subscribers with another check and balance to even more tightly define accuracy of the figures.

Should you have any questions about this newly posted asterisk, or for that matter anything on the site please contact us at customer support.

Dan Zucker
Co-founder, Predicteform

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Welcome to Predicteform

Predicteform.com Pace Figures, Form Cycle Patterns and Value Play picks will tell you if a horse is likely to improve or regress in its next start. Easily accessible from any computer, tablet or mobile device, Predicteform.com services horse players of all types. Access to printing PDF's is also available.

How do I get started?
Visit the Learn tab on the navigation bar where you'll find the Predicteform.com Legend and Pattern Guide. These two tools combined will give you the knowledge you need to use Predicteform.com:

The Legend helps to explain how best to read the Pace Figures. It clearly defines what every line, symbol and figure means.

The Pattern Guide highlights Form Cycle Patterns, a series of 12 symbols/abbreviations, each with its own definition. These patterns are the easiest and most effective way to evaluate what we can expect from a horse's future performance and expected form cycle.

Value Play Picks use the automated technology and process to evaluate every track and race as well as the Predicteform.com team's analytical expertise, we can now rank every horse by its likelihood of winning the race and value (initially relative to morning line odds).
Value Play picks are included as part of all subscriptions and you can view now on the Free Race of the Day.

Blinker's Off - We have also published founder Cary Fotias' unabridged book on Form Cycle Analysis, available by chapter free to all who register.

Free Race of the Day – Every day, we will make available the Pace Figures and Value Play Picks for at least one race. Pace Figures are what subscribers, both in the Value Play Picks and the comprehensive "advanced" view, can see for every horse of every race at every track. Check out today's free race here.

Free Track of the Weekend - Each weekend (Fri. - Sun.), Predicteform will offer access to the Value Play Picks, Pace Figures and Form Cycle Patterns. Access to this data will provide new users an ability to follow along and learn how read, analyze and use the Predicteform technology.

Where can I see sample races?
Click here to read examples of the Pace Figures and Form Cycle Pattern Analysis for the 2016 Preakness Stakes. Many more race examples and other content has been made available within the Blog section of the site.

Feedback is incredibly important to the Predicteform.com team as we attempt to keep the spirit of Equiform.com founder, Cary Fotias' handicapping vision alive while also providing you with the best possible product. We encourage you to register/log in and send us comments, thoughts and questions about the site through Customer Support.

Let us know what you like and what you want to see more of. We are big believers in collaboration and hope you are as excited as we are about Predicteform.com.