The Race Analyzer (10/19/15)

The Race Analyzer – A Game Changer for Horse Racing Fans and Bettors

The Breeders' Cup, the biggest two days in horse racing are nearly upon us and I wanted to tell you about a series of never seen before, cutting edge technologies that we have recently launched here at Predicteform.
Predicteform.com is owned and run by the same team that is responsible for the leading sports analytics and simulation company called PredictionMachine.com. Over the course of the past six years, our group has developed some incredible technologies for sports, none more important than the Play Analyzer.

As you know, betting on sports is against fixed lines (unlike pari-mutuel wagering where the line doesn't fix until the race starts). At the time of bet, you are able to lock in the line at that given time. And whether you are selecting games on your own or using PredictionMachine.com, understanding line movement and how to take advantage of it is the most vital component to winning on sports.

The development of the Play Analyzer was a true game changer for PredictionMachine subscribers. Essentially, this technology empowered the user to re-simulate any game on the card using their current line.

Here's an example of how it works from Week 6 in College Football:

The most impactful move of the weekend for our picks occurred in the Louisiana Tech @ UTSA game as the total opened at 57 on Wednesday. By kickoff on Saturday the total line moved down to 54. Using the Play Analyzer to re-simulate the game, the “over pick” moved from 61% confidence to 66%. The final score was 34-31, easily covering the over and rewarding players with another "2X double play green pick" winner against the closing line.

User feedback has been so strong for the Play Analyzer that CEO Paul Bessire along with his development team set out to bring this power to the horse racing world via Predicteform.com.

With that, I present to you the recently launched technology called the Race Analyzer. Driven from the Play Analyzer technology, the Race Analyzer empowers the user to adjust the odds in real-time and re-rank horses by value given those odds.

Historically, a pundit, handicapper or speed figure producer provides picks before a race. The pick is based on who they believe will win that race, ostensibly without taking value or betting lines into account. But how could they? Odds are not available two weeks before the race and the ultimate goal for such pundits is to find winners, not value.

Let's use the Breeders' Cup Classic to demonstrate how the Play Analyzer works. First, let's set the field. After reviewing the Breeders' Cup website that lists the challengers for each race, we confirmed the Classic field of eleven starters.

Next, we went to the Breeders' Cup Classic Pace Figures which are FREE here. Using the UK fixed odds sites and the Wynn Las Vegas Future book odds, I built an odds table with the projected post time odds for all starters. Note that this model is using the total combined chance to win at 125% which accounts for the approximate takeout.

Horse Odds % Chance
American Pharoah 1 4/5 0.36
Beholder 3 0.25
Effinex 30 0.02
Frosted 14 0.07
Gleneagles 12 0.08
Hard Aces 35 0.03
Honor Code 6 0.14
Hoppertunity 25 0.04
Keen Ice 11 0.08
Smooth Roller 15 0.06
Tonalist 7 0.13
Total Margin 1.25

Finally, we click Analyze Race on the Pace Figure page and come to the Race Analyzer page for the Breeders' Cup Classic. This is where we input the above odds and RE-EVALUATE the race and view the Play Analyzer Value Picks for the Breeders' Cup Classic.

One final note, make sure you re-evaluate the race one more time during the 60 minutes in between post to get the final Value Play order.


Comments

Search Blogs

Keyword:

Archive

Ad