Madefromlucky (05/29/15)

John Ewing Director of Research and Analytics @johnewing
Could a horse American Pharoah has already beat pull the upset in the Belmont?



American Pharoah (4/5) is the deserving favorite heading into the Belmont Stakes after winning the first two legs of the Triple Crown. The Kentucky Derby and Preakness winner is racing against history looking to become the first Triple Crown winner in 37 years.

Frosted (5/1) and Materiality (8/1) are the two most likely horses bettors will back to upset American Pharoah, but could a horse he has already beat twice surprise?

Madefromlucky lost to American Pharoah in the Rebel Stakes and Arkansas Derby by a combined 15 lengths (read Predicteform's Arkansas Derby Analysis). Taking a page from last year's Belmont Stakes winner, Tonalist, trainer Todd A. Pletcher opted not to race Madefromlucky in the Kentucky Derby or Preakness Stakes. You can read Predicteform's 2014 Belmont Stakes Analysis which accurately predicted Tonalist to upset California Chrome.

Instead, Madefromlucky ran in the Peter Pan and won, just like Tonalist did prior to his Belmont Stakes win last year. As seen from the chart below, Madefromlucky has similar Final and Four Furlong figures to Tonalist entering the last leg of the Triple Crown (about two points off for each). Furthermore, both horses were coming off positive Form Cycle Patterns, Tonalist and his NPT (New Pace Top), while Madefromlucky is currently sitting on a SOFT Pattern (with a previous NPT).

Madefromlucky is positioned as a Breakout candidate in our Value Plays. A breakout runner is a horse that is expected to improve significantly from previous races based on pace and form. These are generally undervalued horses. Madefromlucky is currently the sixth betting favorite at 20/1.

All of the horse racing world is focused on American Pharoah and his run for the record books, but don't be surprised if history repeats itself.

Runner Days Rest Race Prior Final Figure Race Prior 4f Figure Pattern
Tonalist 28 77.5 72.7 NPT
Madefromlucky 28 75 70.3 SOFT

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