Belmont Stakes Analysis (06/03/15)

by Dan Zucker
In-depth analysis of the 2015 Belmont Stakes including Pace Figures and Form Cycle Pattern of each starter. Please refer to the Legend or Pattern Guide for back-up definitions and patterns. See Free Value Plays and Pace Figure Analysis here.



Madefromlucky (12/1)

Madefromlucky has not dipped his toe in the water in the Triple Crown series until now. Here's what we had to say about Madefromlucky prior to the Arkansas Derby (which American Pharoah won):

After a successful jump into Graded Stakes competition, Madefromlucky takes on American Pharoah again, who beat him handily last out in the Grade II Rebel Stakes. That being said, there are a few interesting angles to like. He makes his third start for top trainer Todd Pletcher, big-game rider Johnnie V stays aboard and he is coming off 28 days of rest, perfectly spaced. His half-sister, A Shin Gold (by Medaglia d'Oro), was a very good race horse in Japan, winning almost $1mm including the Japan Dirt.

His most recent Pace Figure showed a five point regression from 73.4 – 68.3 but it aligns with American Pharoah's regression, likely due to a very heavy track.

And while he finished a semi-competitive fourth in the Arkansas Derby, his most recent effort in the Peter Pan garners interest. Here's what we said about Madefromlucky in the blog post from earlier in the week:

Madefromlucky ran in the Peter Pan and won, just like Tonalist did prior to his Belmont Stakes win last year. As seen from the chart, Madefromlucky has similar Final and Four Furlong figures to Tonalist entering the last leg of the Triple Crown (about two points off for each). Furthermore, both horses were coming off positive Form Cycle Patterns, Tonalist and his NPT (New Pace Top), while Madefromlucky is currently sitting on a SOFT Pattern (with a previous NPT). Read the full blog post on the value of Madefromlucky here.

Sent off as the fourth choice in a field of just five in the Peter Pan, he rallied into a slow pace, raced four wide while lugging in down the stretch, still winning while going away at a margin of closer to two lengths than one.

Madefromlucky is the second runner in the race from the Todd Pletcher barn and has the top jockey at Belmont Park (and in the US), Javier Castellano on board to ride. Lucky is also one of two runners to previously race at Belmont Park and the only one with a win.

The Play: Breakout/Fringe Contender – New shooter status and series of positive Form Cycle Patterns creates value at morning line odds of 12/1 and still a strong play at double-digit odds currently.

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