Santa Anita Derby (04/02/15)

2015 Santa Anita Derby Analysis including Pace Figures and Play Recommendations.



We head out west to Santa Anita Park for this week's feature race – The Santa Anita Derby. Run at 9 furlongs for three year-olds for a purse of $1mm, the Grade I Santa Anita Derby will air live Saturday at 6:30pm ET on NBC Sports Network.

Two of the last three Kentucky Derby winners ran their final prep in the Santa Anita Derby, in 2012 I'll Have Another and of course in 2014, California Chrome.

Dortmund (3/5)

Undefeated in five lifetime starts, Dortmund has been nothing short of spectacular in his six month racing career. Only two horses on the Derby trail are undefeated (Materiality and Far From Over), but between them they are also five for five.

He has been a model of consistency fighting gamely in every start while facing Graded Stakes competition in his last three starts. Trained by Bob Baffert who has won this race a record six times, it's hard to knock Dortmund off his current form. One thing to note in his running style is he does have a tendency to get complacent on the lead.

His final Pace Figure has regressed ever so slightly from 78.3 – 77.8 – 76.9 (most recent), but even that most recent 76.9 is still higher than any of his competitors have ever run on dirt.

The odds on morning line favorite draws the rail and has three wins at Santa Anita but his total earnings of $690k is more than the entire field combined.



The Play: Contender – very tough to knock this favorite, though his slight regression is a minor cause for concern. From a value perspective however, there is none.

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