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G3 Lecomte S. (01/16/21)

Fair Grounds, Race 13

8 ½ Furlongs, Dirt

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#1 Midnight Bourbon 7/2

After popping a 78/76 DTOP, took a predictable regression to 72/69 which demanded a break. A layoff is necessary for recovery time from a DTOP in order to run back at full strength so he's eligible to return to his best here, but is a restart really what this one wants? Was not impressive on debut for example. Half-sibling won the Risen Star and Louisiana Derby.

#2 Arabian Prince 6/1

Bumped his Final Figure up a bit with each start and last out's 74 is right there with these. Position could be the key for him here as his 66 4F Figure that went with that nice Final Figure is near the bottom of the field. Basically, that translates to some of the best late speed in the race. If you can get the odds you want to see him receive a favorable set-up and trip, then he's certainly live here.

#3 Beep Beep 12/1

The majority of these were geared up for their debuts setting NEGs but this one boasts a 77/74.5 COMP, the form cycle designation we like to see for a second time starter. The tight dirt spread (4F minus Final) is also an indicator of possible success with stretch outs in distance as it indicates energy spent was spread more evenly throughout the race. Great one to include being offered double-digit odds.

#4 Proxy 6/1

Progressing nicely from a REV to an NPT into a 66/71 DTOP. Lightly-raced runners are eligible to break through DTOPs since they haven't yet established a ceiling for themselves, but this is a competitive race and cuts need to be made. Fundamentally, this is a regression spot without recovery time so it's a lot to ask him to not only overcome but further more improve off it.

#7 Santa Cruiser 6/1

Took well to routing setting an 82/74 NPT in gate to wire fashion. NPT moves lose their conditioning power after a bit so we would have preferred to see this one back quicker than 62 days. Nevertheless, owns the top Average 4F as well as Last 4F Figures of the field with a lot of room to relax the 4F Figure today in order to boost the Final Figure.

#9 Manor House 8/1

The 71/68 COMP on debut is too slow for this field but can't fault the horse for having the competition overmatched in a 12-length victory romp. Potential remains a mystery but the trainer/owner combo here doesn't enter runners in spots they don't expect to have a chance. Sire is pretty new to the scene but his offspring have hit the board in 13 of 19 dirt routes.

#10 Mandaloun 3/1

Set up well for the 2-turn try by prompting a 75/76 REV sprinting. Owns the Top Last Final Figure of the field so moving off a positive here certainly makes him one of the top contenders, but in a good-looking field from top to bottom, it's tempting to cross your fingers and go looking for higher potential payouts elsewhere.

-Dustin Korth @predicteform

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