Woodward Stakes Analysis (08/28/14)

Each weekend this summer, the team at Predicteform.com selects a Graded Stakes Race and provides an in-depth Form Cycle Race Analysis along with FREE Pace Figures and Past Performances for each starter

The $600,000 Grade I Woodward Stakes is run at 9 furlongs for three year-olds and up. TV Coverage starts at 6pm ET on NBC Sports with the Forego Stakes, followed by the Woodward which goes to post at 6:46 pm ET.

Here is a sample Form Cycle Race analysis and Pace Figures for Itsmyluckyday, the morning-line 5:2 second choice in the Woiodward Stakes from Saratoga.

Itsmyluckday (5-2)

Here's what we had to say about Itsmyluckday prior to the Whitney:

A serious racehorse in his 3 year-old year, Itsmyluckyday ran second in the 2013 Preakness before getting injured in June 2013. Over the course of the last three races he has quickly rounded back into form most recently posting an 81.5 Final Pace Figure. Speaking of his last race and the 81.5, if you watch the replay (which we encourage), jockey Paco Lopez spent more time looking back than forward, letting him coast to the wire in almost a goofy coasting style, clearly indicating he had more in the tank. The Play: Value Play – The 81.5 final figure in his last gets IMLD right in the mix, and while it was a lifetime top (which is of some concern), the style in which he won the race and his back class make for a value bet.

Visually speaking, his Whitney effort was good. Jockey Paco Lopez kept him on the rail and saved ground, however, at the top of the stretch, the rail was wide open and Lopez decided to swing out as Moreno veered in. There was plenty of room on the rail which leads one to believe the jockey probably thought his horse had another gear, which never quite kicked in.

His Pace Figure in the Whitney was a 78.4, a three point regression from his previous top which was expected, as noted above, but still competitive in this field.

The Play: Regressor – Given his 3 point regression and the lack of a real kick in the Whitney make this morning line second choice tough to back at what will be likely 2:1 odds at post time.


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