The Distaff Analysis (10/28/14)

In-depth analysis of the 2014 Breeders' Cup Longines Distaff including Pace Figures and Form Cycle Patterns of each starter. Please refer to the Legend or Pattern Guide for back-up definitions and patterns.

The Pace Figures will tell you if a horse is likely to improve or regress in its next start. Pace Figures are not just a single speed number, but rather a series of numbers that are incredibly powerful in identifying the Form Cycle Patterns of a horse.

To view the free Pace Figures while reading the Longines Distaff analysis, click here.

Close Hatches (3/1)

The runner-up in the race last year to Beholder (who is out), Close Hatches is a five time Grade I winner that's banked over $2.7mm, the most in the field. She was on a four race win streak since the 2013 Distaff when she faltered badly in her last out as a 1-5 favorite.

She packed it in at the 6f mark and barely held on for fourth. Maybe it was the track or the preceding insane heavily pressed work pattern, but this is not the effort one wants to see coming into a $2mm Breeders' Cup race. At 5-2-1-0 ($845k) at the 9f distance, it could also be noted that this is not her top distance.

From a Pace Figure perspective she showed a two point forward move off the 8/22 NPT (New Pace Top – fastest four furlong figure while not running a lifetime top final figure and strong indication of progression) Form Cycle Pattern, but her obvious visual regression in the race is even more of an issue off an expected forward move off the NPT.

The Play: Regressor – The outside post with a long run into the first turn, 3-1 morning line odds make her tough to back, especially off a poor race at a distance where her lifetime top is 76.

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