Stephen Foster Analysis (06/13/14)

A new perspective from Predicteform.com, the abridged analysis provides quick hitting Pace Figure commentary on select horses both improving and regressing.

To view the Pace Figures for the Stephen Foster Handicap, Race 8 at Churchill Downs, click here.

Revolutionary (2/1)

Consistent Final Pace Figure improvement over three races (75 – 76.8 – 78.6 most recent), makes you think another improved effort in a final figure will be tough. Given that a number of these runners can compete in the 78-80 range for a final figure, plus his morning-line odds of 2:1 warrants him a look underneath but the value is not on top with this runner.

Will Take Charge (5/2)

His recent four race successive decline in final Pace Figures from an 84.1 top (and absolutely monster final figure at GP) to his most recent 75.3 indicate a runner who is tailing off (8.8 points over 4 months) – looking at his “basic view graph,” this regression really is noticeable. The likelihood of WTC bouncing back to run a three point + improved final figure is less than his chance to not which is particularly unattractive for a 5:2 morning line runner.

Departing (9/2)

A well-managed runner with only 10 lifetime starts, this colt is a Claiborne Farm type runner inside and out. (Stallion War Front stands at Claiborne for $150,000 while the Dam Leave is also Claiborne bred). His last effort was a 78.3/80.1 New Pace Top (NPT – fastest 4f figure of career without a lifetime final top), which is even more impressive coming off a seven month layoff (9/29/13 – 4/30/14). His improving 4f figures with consistent competitive final figures indicate a runner who is showing a tactical ability to stalk the pace. There is significant value here at 9:2 morning line.

Golden Ticket (8/1)

Notice his basic view graph. The up and down style of his final Pace Figure tells the story.

Long River (15/1)

Another runner off a New Pace Top (NPT), he has four consecutive Form Cycle Patterns and 8 of 11 lifetime races with a pattern. His most recent effort of 80.9/83.3 (NPT at Charlestown a 1/2 mile track) is impressive. The big question is whether a 10 point jump in his 4f figure and back-to-back ~81 final times are sustainable, though double–digit odds are enticing.

Prayer Relief (8/1)

His recent effort was a Cyclical Pace Top (CPT – best 4f Pace Figure in last 10 starts). Notice his two previous CPT's and the regression that followed each.

Also Running – Jaguar Paw, Moonshine Mullin and Mylute.

The Play

Revolutionary and WTC are likely to be co-favorites (or close) leaving value in Departing as the key horse, especially at 5:1 or greater. There are two wagering possibilities to consider for those interested in playing the Stephen Foster: Win/Place on (6) Departing and three horse exacta box (1) Revolutionary - (6) Departing - (8) Long River.


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