Belmont Prop Bets (06/06/14)

John Ewing, Director of Research and Analytics, @johnewing
Prop bets for California Chrome in the 2014 Belmont Stakes. Odds courtesy of Bovada.lv.



California Chrome, the winner of the Kentucky Derby and Preakness, is on the threshold of greatness. The modest colt is looking to become the first Triple Crown winner since Affirmed in 1978. With California Chrome's pursuit of a horse racing immortality, we look at a few prop bets leading up to the Test of the Champion.

Will California Chrome win the 2014 Triple Crown?
  • Yes: EVEN
  • No: -140

There are three true contenders in the Belmont Stakes. The odds imply that California Chrome has a 50 percent chance of becoming just the twelfth horse to win the Triple Crown.

Will California Chrome win by 2 lengths or more?
  • Yes: +225
  • No: -350

The public's confidence in California Chrome to win and win big has waned. When this prop bet was released a few weeks ago, the odds that Chrome would win by 2 lengths or more was Even Money. Those odds implied that Chrome had a 50% chance to win by 2 or more lengths, now it is down to 31%.

How many times will “California Chrome” be mentioned by the race announcer from start of race to finish of the race?
  • Over/Under: 15.5

This prop bet will most likely be decided by the race itself. Another horse winning could produce an under, but a California Chrome victory easily could send this prop bet over.

Will California Chrome race again in 2014 after the Belmont?
  • Yes: -140
  • No: EVEN

Horse racing experts estimate that California Chrome's stud value ranges between $15 million and $30 million pending the results of the Triple Crown. A valuation on the high end of the estimate could make it difficult for the owners to race Chrome after the Belmont.

What will be the Nielsen TV Rating?
  • Over/Under: 11

Viewership for the Belmont stakes almost doubles when a horse is attempting to win the Triple Crown. From 2009-2013, with no Triple Crown at stake, viewership ranged between 4.9 million and 7.7 million. In 2008, when Big Brown tried to win the Triple Crown the audience jumped to 13.1 million. To go over a Nielsen TV rating of 11, the 2014 Belmont Stakes would need approximately 13 million viewers.

For the full Belmont Analysis, click here.

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