Penn Derby Analysis (09/18/14)

Here's the analysis on the race favorite, California Chrome. To get the full Pace Figure and Form Cycle Race Analysis, register for FREE here.


The Grade II Pennsylvania Derby with a purse of $1 million will be run at 9 furlongs on the dirt for three year olds and up. California Chrome will make his long-awaited return to the track after his gallant Triple Crown effort. Catch ABR's live coverage of the race which has a post time of 5:40 pm ET on Saturday, September 20th.

Get the Pace Figures and Past Performances for the Penn Derby.


California Chrome (1/1)


Here's what we had to say about California Chrome prior to the Belmont Stakes:

Pace Figures are remarkable, but this is a runner who makes his third start in five weeks. Are you willing to back a runner who will likely have a slower Final Pace Figure in his effort to win the third leg of the Triple Crown? It's a tall task for any horse, especially one that is not likely to take another step forward. He is just a little more likely than not to win the race, yet likely will not have value at less than even money.

Chrome has taken an interesting path back to the track after being turned out (horse vacation) for two months, trainer Art Sherman has worked him on a perfect seven day pattern with a couple bullet works sprinkled in.

He traveled well back to Philly looking to return to his glory as the media coverage awaits at PARX Racing. He is sitting on 105 days rest or coming off a 105 day layoff, in either case he's had twice as much time between races as any other runner in this field.

There is no question that on his best day Chrome should dominate this crew. He is however, from a Pace Figure perspective, coming off a five point decline in his Final Figure with his lowest 4 furlong figure lifetime. There is some excuse given the 12f distance, but nonetheless, stepped on or not, his Belmont Stakes race was regression.



The Play: At what is expected to be well below even money, given the network coverage and fan base, there is little value to play him on top. $12,925,898 was burned on him to win Triple Crown in NY, we'll see how much of that money flocks back.

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