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G1 Arkansas Derby (04/10/21)

Oaklawn Park, Race 12

9 Furlongs, Dirt

After being spoiled with 2 full divisions in a split 2020 Arkansas Derby, this year's edition comes up a bit light. Paired with the Lexington Stakes at Keeneland, this is the last chance for Derby hopefuls to rack up points and earn their way into the May 1st starting gate.

#1 Super Stock 6/1

Runner put a lot of work in as a juvenile so has plenty right to move forward second off the winter layoff with that type of foundation behind him. Has been a step behind the best horses throughout career with only win coming at 5 ½ furlongs. Will need to ask for proper odds to fit the big jump forward we're asking for.

#2 Caddo River 7/2

Both wins came when enjoying a clear lead on the heels of 4F Figures over 75 those days' fields couldn't match and is 0 for 3 without the early lead. Triggered a Reversal (REV) last out but this usually leads to an uptick in Final Figure which this one lacked when having his confidence destroyed from rival Concert Tour. If he sticks up front a bit tougher today, perhaps he can help today's underdogs by hounding the favorite but hard to see a scenario where he turns the tables for himself.

#3 Hozier 3/1

Late bloomer has taken well to the two-turn route with a consistent 68/73 range. Will be running on late and hoping for an early pace battle to set him up. Need to be getting better odds to back these types of runners as he can't just take this race for himself. He'll be reliant on Caddo River stepping up and softening Concert Tour. Possible scenario but not at 3 to 1.

#4 Get Her Number 6/1

Laid some foundation on less stressful turf before moving to the main track where he owns a COMP debut win right into a Reversal (REV) on today's surface. Could be the value play to hit the exacta.

#5 Concert Tour 1/1

The 79/75 COMP debut is reminiscent of past Derby champs that have come out of California. This one is undefeated after putting the pedal down at 72/76 first route against some of today's better rivals. Not much to see here, the obvious one to beat. Even money would be a decent price.

#6 Last Samurai 15/1

Owners will yield at least a $5,000 profit for running here (if last place).

-Dustin Korth @predicteform

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