Champagne Stakes Analysis (10/02/14)

The $500k Champagne Stakes is the oldest run Graded Stakes race in the country, now in its 148th year. It's run at a distance of a flat mile (8 furlongs), for just two year-olds.

It is one of six Breeders' Cup “Win and You're In” Challenge Races (where the winning horse gets his entry into the Breeders' Cup and travel expenses paid - read more about the value of winning a Breeders' Cup Challenge Race). The race will air live on NBC Sports Network along with the Shadwell Turf Mile (featuring two-time Horse of the Year, Wise Dan) beginning at 4pm ET on Saturday, October 4th.
While the field has only six starters, each one is coming off a Form Cycle Pattern.

Here is a sample of the Five Horse, The Truth or Else.

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The Truth or Else (10/1)

A $110k purchase out of the 2013 July Fasig-Tipton Sale, The Truth or Else is the most seasoned runner in the field with four starts. He got knocked around in Maiden Special Weight company until his most recent move to the dirt and subsequent win. He is the only runner to have competed at the 8 furlong + distance (three times already) which is a positive.

From a Pace Figure perspective it is clear he is a couple of points slower than other horses in the race. His grass efforts were in the mid 60's, while his most recent effort of 72.5/67.4 was his first on grass and his work patterns following have been just okay.

The Play: Too Slow – lower Pace Figures plus loss of top jock Joel Rosario are strong negatives. He will also be shorter odds than he should due to field size.


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