Our First Breeders' Cup (10/16/14)

Our first Breeders' Cup (BC) is just a few weeks away and our team at Predicteform.com is ready to help subscribers take down the Cup! Here's what's on tap for the Breeders' Cup at Predicteform.

  • Breeders' Cup Free Preview – Each day leading up to the BC we will post Pace Figures and Past Performances for a potential starter. Click here to see today's Preview.
  • Breeders' Cup trends including top jockey's, trainers, owners, leading sires and dams.
  • Future book odds for the Distaff and Classic.
  • Breeders' Cup Live Webinar hosted by Brisnet's Ed DeRosa with Predicteform co-founder Dan Zucker, tenatively scheduled for Tuesday 10/28, 7-8:30 PM ET.
  • Breeders' Cup Pace Figures Package which includes three separate sets of Pace Figures for one price of $39.90
    • Breeders' Cup Contenders (10/16-10/22) – all potential runners for all 13 Breeders' Cup races over two days.
    • Breeders' Cup Pre-Entries (10/22–10/27) – all runners in 13 Breeders' Cup races in post position order
    • Santa Anita Park Full Cards (available on 10/28 for Fri. 10/31 and Sat. 11/1) – 10 races on Friday and 12 races on Saturday

If you are not already registered, you can do that here for free or subscribe to the Breeders' Cup Package.

How are things going as we enter our eighth month as Predicteform.com?

We are proud to be carrying on a life's work, which comes from the brilliant job founder Cary Fotias did in developing the algorithm and math behind Predicteform.com.

The foundation and math behind the Pace Figures and Form Cycle Patterns remains pristine and unchanged, though our team has been able to revolutionize the "figures" from a manual to a dynamic process. Through the course of this transition, we have been able to identify an opportunity for a potential upgrade.

There are over 8,000 par times that were originally created by Cary. These par times are used to create the expected final pace figures of every possible combination of track, distance, class and surface Originally, these par times were static, meaning they never varied nor changed. The par times were updated periodically though not consistently.

Currently and as it stands now, Predicteform is updating those same par times dynamically every night based on daily results.

Led by Paul Bessire, General Manager of our sister company PredictionMachine.com, he discerned that the threshold of the number of races needed as the foundation for the par times (by specific track/distance/surface and class), was not being reached in some cases. However, the good news is that because Predicteform is updating par times dynamically each night, Paul, through statistical modeling, was able to determine that 10 historical races fitting the exact class, track, distance and surface (over the past two years) will get us to a 95% confidence that the given par time is appropriate.

As you can imagine, there are a number of situations when a track doesn't run enough races to reach the minimum threshold (over the allotted two year time period) and that a horse's Pace Figures are based on a comparison to smaller sample size Par Times. For example, take a look at Alexis Tangier's Pace Figures below, a pre-entry in the Breeders' Cup Turf Sprint.


F w78.0 w72.4* 67.4 w73.0 58.2 66.5
4f 79.4 71.4 70.7 75.5 68.9 76.9
P NEG
6f 77.6 66.9 65.4 72.6
2f 74.8 80.6
T sax dmr dmr sax sax sax
S TURF TURF DIRT TURF DIRT DIRT
L 61/2 8 81/2 61/2 51/2 51/2
C Firm Firm Fast Firm Fast Fast
B/M
D 09/27/14 08/20/14 07/27/14 06/21/14 05/31/14 04/20/14


The asterisk adjacent to the 72.4 Final Pace Figure on 08/20/2014 means that at that distance of 8 furlongs on the Del Mar turf, at that class, there were not at least 10 races over the course of two years months to qualify as a par time with 95% confidence. You'll notice the asterisk on select races going back to August 16th of this year which is when the par time notations were implemented.

More than anything, this asterisk notation has been created to provide our subscribers with another check and balance to even more tightly define accuracy of the figures.

Should you have any questions about this newly posted asterisk, or for that matter anything on the site please contact us at customer support.

Dan Zucker
Co-founder, Predicteform

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2017 Derby Prep Race Preview

Join Predicteform co-founder Dan Zucker for an in-depth preview of the this weekend's Triple Crown Preps:
  • Blue Grass Stakes (Keeneland)
  • Wood Memorial (Aqueduct)
  • Santa Anita Derby (Santa Anita)

Dan will discuss each of the runner's from a Form Cycle and Pace Figures perspective. This interactive webinar will also allow participants to send in questions live during the seminar. As time permits Dan might also look at a couple of the undercard stakes on the biggest Saturday of the year thus far.


Predicteform Triple Crown Prep Preview
Fri, Apr 7, 2017 6:00 PM - 7:00 PM EDT

Please join my meeting from your computer, tablet or smartphone.
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