The Power of the New Pace Top (11/6/14)

There were a total of nine New Pace Top (NPT) runners over three Breeders' Cup races on Saturday - the Juvenile, the Filly & Mare Sprint and the Sprint. Two of those three races were won by a horse with a NPT Form Cycle Pattern.

As defined in the legend, the NPT is when a horse runs its best 4F dirt Pace Figure of its entire career yet does not finish with a clear max final Pace Figure. One of the better indicators of future success, this runner is likely to run an improved, often times dramatically so, final Pace Figure in its next race.

Not only can this be seen with Take Charge Brandy, a 61-1 winner of the Breeders' Cup Juvenile Fillies and Work All Week, a 20-1 winner of the Breeders' Cup Sprint but important Grade I races such as the Belmont Stakes won by Tonalist at 9-1 and Travers Stakes Winner VE Day who went off at 19-1.

What makes the NPT so valuable is it finds runners who ran their fastest internal 4 furlong Pace Figure lifetime without their fastest finishing Pace Figure. Founder Cary Fotias (of Equiform, Predicteform's former name) analyzed150,000 races, and discovered there was a clear correlation between the horses who ran 4 furlongs fast and their final
Pace Figure the following race.

Fotias found that next start following a NPT performances, the runner was able to better distribute its energy (speed) and thus the dramatic improvement. Horse players using traditional past performances or one number speed figures are often times not able to sight these internal pace adjustments and thus the reason why we see double digit win prices on a daily basis.

Predicteform.com provides for FREE, a list of all Form Cycle Pattern Winners each day for every racetrack in an easy to search database. Check out the Win Pattern Page.


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