Summer Racing Update (08/06/15)

As the summer racing season heats up I thought it would be a good time to update you on what's happening here at Predicteform and share with you a few of the new features we have recently launched.

You might be aware that I write a pretty in-depth race analysis most weeks during the summer, but did you know that it runs in the Wall Street Journal - check out the Predicteform analysis of the Haskell Invitational in the WSJ!

Each Friday, Ed DeRosa (from Brisnet) and I engage in a weekly podcast where we discuss the in detail the feature race/s of the weekend, which you can catch live at Blogtalkradio.com or here are Predicteform. Ed presents the Brisnet perspective of the select race/s along with past performance analysis while I really dive into the Pace Figures for each horse running and projections for their upcoming effort. Over the course of the last few weeks we've selected the following winners:
  • 7/24 Schuylerville: Off The Tracks ($19.60)
  • 7/25 Diana Stakes: Hard Not To Like ($14.40)
  • 8/2 Haskell Stakes: American Pharaoh - Keen Ice Cold Exacta ($10.80)

I've also been updating the Final Pace Figures for the Breeders' Cup Challenge Series as well as the major graded stakes on television. Check out American Pharaoh's Final Figure in the Haskell, it was a remarkable 82 and a lifetime top! How he is able to run such a race after the three year-old Triple Crown run is simply amazing. As paraphrased by Bruce Kittle, Cary Fotias' best friend, here's what the original founder of Equiform would have said about AP; "What a monster! I think this horse might be one of the best I have ever seen. Just incredible speed and one of the most fluid runners. I don't know of a way to beat him, and with each race, he just keeps getting better.”

While I agree 100%, logic tells me that we will see final figure regression in AP's next start, but even back three points to a 79 likely puts him ahead of the competition. Check out Texas Red's Lifetime Pace Figures and see how he could shape up against AP. On the topic of "who might run," Arlington Park is putting together a serious set of turf races next weekend with the Grade I Beverly D at 9.5f for Fillies three and up and the Grade I Arlington Million at 10f for the boys three year-olds and up. Here's hoping we find a Turf Decline Line (TDL) amongst all those starters...

Daily Top Value Play

The team at Predicteform has taken Value Plays to the next level by producing a Daily Top Value Play. The math engine that produces the Value Plays now searches all races every day and identifies the one race (from any track and any race with the exception of races in which at least one horse has not previously run) where the Top Contender has the largest gap in value from the second choice.

Designated as the "Daily Top Value," the pick is available for any subscriber to a product for that day. And since there is a free track of the week, every week, all visitors have FREE access to the Daily Top Value Play each weekend as long as you sign up for the Free Track of the Week.

Lifetime Top Final Figure

I had the good fortune of being in Saratoga for the first two weeks of the meet. My good friend, Tom Grossman, principal at Blue Chip Farms (the largest commercial Breeder of Standardbreds in the US), owns a house across the street from the front gate. Daily you could find us on the front porch discussing the races and the principles behind how each of us views a race. A notable commonality was always, "what was that horse's lifetime top final figure."

Knowing this top figure was important to each of us for the same reason - the run back number. Essentially, if on a given day when a horse is at the top of his game, what would be the highest figure he could run back to? After much deliberation with the team at Predicteform, it was acknowledged that this figure can be an important and missing piece to the handicapping equation - and so it was determined to add the Top Final Pace Figure. Located after the Last 4F Pace Figure on the Value Play tab (and in the basic view as well), Top Final can be a key indicator for a horse rounding back into form or in some cases off, coming off a layoff.

Please feel free to drop us a note and share what you think of the new features and enjoy this great weekend of racing.

Dan Zucker
Predicteform Co-Founder

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2017 Derby Prep Race Preview

Join Predicteform co-founder Dan Zucker for an in-depth preview of the this weekend's Triple Crown Preps:
  • Blue Grass Stakes (Keeneland)
  • Wood Memorial (Aqueduct)
  • Santa Anita Derby (Santa Anita)

Dan will discuss each of the runner's from a Form Cycle and Pace Figures perspective. This interactive webinar will also allow participants to send in questions live during the seminar. As time permits Dan might also look at a couple of the undercard stakes on the biggest Saturday of the year thus far.


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