Comparing Odds (05/27/15)

John Ewing Director of Research and Analytics @johnewing
Comparing American Pharoah's odds to other cross-sport favorites.

American Pharoah is the overwhelming betting favorite to win the 147th running of the Belmont Stakes. The Kentucky Derby and Preakness Stakes winner is 10/11 to become the first horse in 37 years to win the Triple Crown.

How do American Pharoah's odds compare to other cross-sport favorites?

Kentucky Wildcats – 2015 NCAA Tournament

John Calipari's undefeated Wildcats entered the NCAA Tournament as 6/5 favorites to cut down the nets. According to, Kentucky was 44 percent likely to win the tournament. The betting odds implied the Cats had an even greater chance to win the school's ninth championship.

Dale Earnhardt Jr. – Daytona 500

Dale Jr. was in the second row of the race's starting lineup. The winner of the Most Popular Driver Award from 2003-2014 was a 15/2 favorite to win his third Daytona 500 and second in a row. Unfortunately, Joey Logano, at 14/1 odds, took the checkered flag.

The Masters

Rory McIlroy, the No. 1 ranked golfer in the world, opened as the betting favorite (6/1). McIlroy had never won the Masters but had won every other major tournament at least once. McIlroy finished fourth behind a record setting Jordan Spieth.

Seattle Seahawks – Super Bowl XLIX

The Seahawks were underdogs to New England at first. The Patriots had crushed the Indianapolis Colts 45-7 in the AFC Championship, while Seattle had to rally from 19-7 in the fourth to win in overtime against Green Bay. There was a lot of movement in the line leading up to kickoff in anticipation of a close contest, Seattle closed as a -115 favorite. The game did not disappoint, highlighted by one of the most memorable plays in NFL history.

Not every favorite wins as expected. American Pharoah will likely see continued support from the betting public as the hype around a Triple Crown winner increases in the week leading up to the Belmont.

Can American Pharoah come through as the betting favorite or will another underdog have his day?


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