Woodbine Race Analysis (11/18)

Woodbine 7
This is one of the best value races Predicteform has to offer this weekend and as a lady, I'm excited for you to make some money off the girls. Cross out the favorite and buckle up. These picks come at a nice price in this 7 furlong dirt race. As a bonus, we're going to learn about dirt spreads since this is a decent race to practice calculating them.

Picks in order: 3-4-9-2-1

A note about dirt spreads:

When studying dirt races in Predicteform, an indicator of future success and gradual improvement is the tightness of dirt spreads. This indicates a horse is using its energy efficiently. Rather than gassing it at the beginning and not being able to reach the finish line, or jogging the beginning and then blowing it out at the end, this horse runs smart and even races that set her up to run the next race slightly faster and just as efficiently.

When horses ‘gas' a race (wider dirt spread and both a higher 4F and final number), it often leads to a bounce. Let's calculate a few spreads and compare for practice and value.

Formula: 4F – Final (F) = dirt sprint spread.

Remember that the most recent race is on the left, so pay attention to dates and work left to right.
While none of these horses' patterns are ideal in that none are precise in gradually tightening, this is a great race to learn from by comparing value horses to the 8/5ths favorite.

PICKS

#3 Ring for Essa
: 8/1
Top overall pick. Top value horse. I straight-out like her to win. Her price is simply icing on the cake.

While Essa's spread is steady and tight, the big-ticket item to note is her high final (F) numbers compared to the rest of the field. She has broken 70 as a final figure at least four times in dirt sprints.
Here's her spread pattern:

Final: 69.2 70.0 70.9 68.7
4 F: 70.0 67.9 73.0 71.0

Spread: .8 -2.1 3.0 2.3
Distance: 6F 6F 6.5F 6F

She is coming 2nd off a layoff of one year. The fact she came back right on par with her old numbers
makes me think she has an excellent chance of improving in this race.

Another positive is that the last time she ran further than 6F was November of 2016 when she ran 6 ½ furlongs and achieved some of her best numbers to date, including a NPT designation. More distance should work to her advantage.

#4: Evil Woman: 9/2

She has excellent final numbers that are set to beat the favorite at a better price. She has maintained a tight dirt spread as of recently. She has also broken 70 (final) in recent form in dirt sprints.

Evil Woman has the fastest 4F figure in the field at 79.1 meaning she has the potential to be the lone pace and to wire the whole race.

Her final numbers are essentially tied with #3, Essa, for best in the group. Her price is simply less appealing, and she isn't 2nd off a layoff. That said, there is nothing wrong with this horse. She is aiming to fire.


Final: 68.0 70.0 Turf 70.9 62.5
4 F: 69.9 70.8 Turf 79.1 69.7
Spread: 1.9 .8 (Turf= skip) 8.2 7.2


#9 Office in the Sky: 4/1
Honorable mention. Her last dirt figure came in at 70.6/72.3. That's very competitive and while she's been running on turf, she's been building stamina. Keep her in your exotics and be ready to play her if she goes off at a decent price. She's dangerous.


#2: Boldnpossible: 8/5

There is no logical reason that I can see that makes this horse the favorite at this distance. Her dirt spreads indicate that she generally starts out slower at the beginning of races and then finishes faster at the end, which is more conducive to routes. Note that we substitute the 6F in the formula for the 4F in races longer than 8F to see her route spreads.

Her 4F numbers are comparatively poor which indicates to me that a cutback seems like a bad idea. I fear the rest of the horses will take off in the beginning without her.

The only time she has ever achieved a final number of 70 was over a year and a half ago in her first race. Again, no final figure improvement feels a bit bleak. Compared to the rest of the group, her final figures are in the ballpark but not as impressive. At 8/5, if you try to put a win bet on her, I will slap it out of your hands.

Final: 67.8 69.4 69.3 69.8 64.6
4 F: 62.1 60.9 64.7 71.8 60.9
6F: 59.1 60.5 62.3
Spread: -8.7 (6F) -8.9 (6F) -4.6 (4F) 2 (4F) -2.3 (6F)

Note: It is not typically useful to compare distances that are over 1F apart, but here we are forced to use her 8.5 numbers. While running a reversal (when your pace numbers are lower than final numbers) is often seen as a good sign, again, it is impossible to ignore the fact that she has continually ran this pattern and never 1) improved, nor 2) broken 70 as her final number.

#1: Londie Lou: 6/1
Bottom of exotics. Don't throw out, but save your win money for the 3, 4, and 9.

About the Author
Carol Sutton is a handicapper from Lincoln, Nebraska. Her favorite surface is turf, favorite distance is a mile, and favorite tracks are Del Mar, Santa Anita, Gulfstream, Saratoga, and Thistledown. She regularly competes in handicapping contests around the Midwest.
While relatively new to the sport, she aims to integrate technology into handicapping to provide an edge against other betters. Ultimately, she wants to invigorate the horse racing industry by generating interest in the sport among women and millennials.

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